627
FXUS63 KTOP 040746
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
246 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Thunderstorms containing heavy rain exit to the east this morning.

-A cold front could (30-50% chc) then bring scattered storms to
eastern KS into this afternoon before the front moves southeast of
the area this evening.

-Wet weather could return to the area this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

At 08Z (3 AM) today, a complex of thunderstorms was continuing to
move through eastern KS. Storms are capable of producing wind gusts
to around 50 mph, and have been producing torrential rainfall.
Pwats remain around 2.0 inches near and south of I-70 in eastern
KS with continued good moisture transport into the area. Thus,
a Flood Watch will remain in effect for a portion of east-
central KS until 14Z (9 AM) before storms exit to the east.
Rainfall totals between 1.0 and 3.0 inches seem likely, with
some isolated higher amounts possible into the early morning
hours.

For the rest of our holiday, a cold front will begin to move through
the forecast area late this morning and into the afternoon ahead of
a mid-level wave over the Upper Midwest. An unstable air mass will
be in place ahead of the boundary, but overall forcing does not look
very strong with the main mid-level support to the northeast. CAMs
show the possibility for scattered thunderstorm development near the
boundary so have a 30-50% chance for convection in eastern KS this
afternoon. If storms develop, a few could reach severe limits with
damaging wind gusts the primary hazard. Flooding could again occur
where storms track over saturated grounds. The boundary should be
progressive and is expected to be southeast of the forecast area by
this evening.

A surface ridge builds into the area from the north on Friday, which
should make for a nice day. Conditions will be dry as dew points
drop into the upper 50s and low 60s. Highs will warm into the low
and mid 80s and northwest winds will be breezy at 10-20 mph.
Increasing POPs return to northeast KS late Saturday and Sunday as
the next in a series of mid-level troughs moves across the northern
portion of the CONUS. Ahead of this feature, strong southerly flow
returns, with moisture increasing once again through the weekend.
The highest potential for this next round of wet weather currently
appears to be from Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Once again,
heavy rainfall could occur with models generally showing another 0.5
to 1.5 inches possible. Drier weather is then expected into the
middle of next week with temperatures creeping upward each day.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Thunderstorms impact terminals for the first several hours of
the 06Z TAF period. Some strong wind gusts over 30kts could
occur, especially with a line segment heading toward KMHK, so
accounted for that with a TEMPO. Storms are expected to clear to
the east Thursday morning, but MVFR CIGS could linger for a few
hours. Widely scattered storms could develop again during the
afternoon as a front moves through, but confidence is not high
enough to include.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ038-KSZ039-
KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Teefey