531
FXUS63 KTOP 081652
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1152 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry with pleasant temperatures through Thursday

- Hot weather expected by the weekend into early next week.
  Highs will reach the mid 90s to around 102 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024


Early this morning, CAT 1 Hurricane Beryl was located just off
the coast line east of Corpus Christi, TX and should make
landfall around 3AM. A broad upper trough extended from the
upper Midwest south-southwest into the central Plains. A broad
upper level ridge was located across the western US. A Second
upper level ridge was located off the eastern coast of the US.

At the surface, a weak cold front extended from western WI,
southward across eastern IA, then southwest across MO into southwest
OK, then southwest into southwest TX.

Today through Tuesday:

Around 3 AM, hurricane Beryl will make landfall along the TX
coast southeast of Palacios, TX. The H5 trough axis will shift
east across the CWA, though most of the ascent ahead of the H5
trough axis was located across MO. There may be a few showers
through sunrise across east central and northeast KS. I kept
PoPs between 10 to 14 percent.

Light northwest winds will keep highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Weak dry air advection and PBL mixing will allow surface
dewpoints to drop into the mid 50s across the western counties
to lower 60s east.

The Remnants of Byrle will move northeast across east TX into the
mid MS River Valley by 00Z WED. The measurable precipitation from
Beryl will remain southeast of the CWA. I did place a slight
chance for light showers across the far southeast counties
Tonight into Tuesday morning. A few the CAMs show widely
scattered showers developing across the far southeast counties
as the H5 trough existing the Plains phases with the remnants of
Beryl.

Highs on Tuesday may be slightly cooler across east central KS with
more mid and high cloud cover. East central KS will see highs in the
lower to mid 80s with the western counties reaching the upper 80s to
around 90.

Tuesday night through Monday:

Expect a warming trend towards the end of the week and into next
week. The H5 ridge across the western US will expand east into the
Plains by next weekend and into next week.

Highs Wednesday and Thursday will range from the mid to upper 80s
east to the upper 80s to lower 90s west. Hot and humid conditions
will return Friday through Monday where highs will reach the mid to
upper 90s with the western counties reaching around 102 degrees.
Heat indices will range between 100 to 107 degrees next weekend
into next Monday. Heat advisories may have to be issued for
portions of the area Saturday through Monday afternoons.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1146 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at all sites. Light northerly winds
will be calm at times overnight, but fog does not appear likely.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gargan
AVIATION...Montgomery