187
FXUS63 KTOP 081859
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
159 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered storms with tropical rainbands possible in SE Kansas.

- Drier pattern setting up for the next week.

- High heat returns this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 156 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

The biggest weather story of today, Hurricane Beryl, made landfall
in southeastern TX this morning. This afternoon, it was located in
eastern TX, and was moving to the NNE at 14 mph, per the NHC 1 pm
advisory. A trough situated over western KS is responsible for the
slight east motion. The trough is also acting to help pull the
moisture to the north, and at 2 pm, a rainband was as far north
as the AR/MO border.

Due to this northward surge in moisture, some POPs were continued
for the southeastern portion of the state tonight into tomorrow
morning. However, the progressive nature of the trough should
prevent most of the state from seeing any rainfall. In fact, the
recent hurricane model trends suggest Beryl will remain even further
to the east than was predicted at this time yesterday.

Other than the slight chance of storms in southeastern KS, the
entire 7 day forecast period looks dry. There are no meaningful POPs
in the forecast after tomorrow, which is quite the shift from the
wet period the area has seen over the past few weeks.

Northwest flow will keep the area with seasonal temperatures for the
first half of the week, but a building ridge in the western US will
lead to above average temperatures towards the weekend. By
Sunday/Monday, temperatures will increase to around 100. It will
likely approach Heat Advisory criteria, but details are missing this
far out.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1146 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at all sites. Light northerly winds
will be calm at times overnight, but fog does not appear likely.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Montgomery
AVIATION...Montgomery