092
FXUS63 KTOP 031746
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1246 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-More wet weather is expected from today through Independence Day.

-A few severe storms could impact holiday festivities in far eastern
 KS during the afternoon/evening tomorrow.

-A continued active pattern will bring storms back to the region
 during the upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 417 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

This morning, the surface boundary that moved through the area
yesterday has slowed it`s southward progression and is located from
east-central into southeast KS. The 850mb front is displaced
slightly further to the north. A surface ridge has expanded over
Nebraska, with an associated drier air mass nudging into north-
central KS. Some radiational fog is developing where skies have
cleared, so have a mention of mainly patchy fog in the forecast
early this morning. In the meantime, thunderstorms were increasing
in coverage at 08Z in southwest KS where WAA was occurring within a
zone of southwesterly flow. That batch of precipitation will move
toward the forecast area today. Thus, have POPs increasing
through midday. Instability will be limited north of the
aforementioned sfc/850 fronts, so mainly rain with some embedded
thunder is expected. The best chance for thunder will be in
those locations near central and southeast KS.

Late this afternoon, CAMs are in good agreement with scattered
convection developing across the High Plains as a shortwave trough
traverses that region. Those storms are expected to weaken as they
move eastward, with MUCAPE likely remaining less than 1000 J/kg for
much of the area. A few damaging wind gusts could occur in central
KS, but the overall severe threat looks fairly limited tonight
otherwise.

Focus then turns to the holiday forecast. Lingering
showers/storms from tonight will end from west to east Thursday
morning. Throughout the day, a mid-level trough will deepen over
the northern plains states. Another surface boundary will set
up over the area as the trough moves east, deeper into the
Midwest. Instability will build over eastern KS ahead of the
front, which is expected to be near a line extending from
Hiawatha to Topeka to Emporia around 21Z. Large scale forcing
generally looks weak, but convergence along the boundary could
allow (30-50% chc) for scattered storms to develop in eastern KS
during the afternoon/early evening. If storms develop, damaging
wind gusts and heavy rainfall will be the main concerns. Storms
will move east during the evening hours, hopefully in time for
firework related celebrations.

A surface ridge then builds into the area on Friday, keeping
conditions dry and temps below average. The next in a series of
mid-level troughs looks to enter the Midwest late Saturday.
POPs increase (to around 40-50% chcs) from west to east across
the CWA late Saturday and Sunday. Rain clears and temps begin to
increase again early next week, back to around 90 degrees by
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Low clouds at TOP/FOE have scattered with mid/high clouds
remaining over all sites. Have removed mention of VCTS for this
afternoon, as scattered showers across the entire state have had
very little lightning observed with them and with weak
instability, would expect any TS to be too isolated to mention
in TAFs for the next several hours. Better chances for
convection are with storms coming in from western/central KS
overnight, so have added VCTS associated with that. The signal
for heaviest rainfall is well south of terminals, so any vis
reductions should be brief if any. Restrictions expected to come
with MVFR cigs during the morning following the storms. Some
guidance shows IFR may be possible during that time, but
confidence isn`t high enough to go that low with cigs just yet.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Picha