448
FXUS65 KTFX 042100
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
300 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue daily through
Saturday for north central Montana with drier conditions expected
south of interstate 90. Temperatures will stay cooler through
Saturday before warming up next week. Well above normal
temperatures and dry conditions are expected through much of next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected on and off
through Saturday afternoon as northwesterly flow aloft continues
to bring moisture and instability into the region. In general,
these storms are expected to stay below severe limits, however,
some small hail and gusty winds up to 55 mph are possible with
stronger showers. Temperatures closer to normal will stick around
through the weekend before warming up early next week. -thor

Sunday through Thursday...A strong upper level ridge of high
pressure is forecast to move over MT during this period. This will
result in a significant heat wave to move into the CWA by the
middle portion of next week. Depending on how far east the center
of high pressure goes, will depend on exactly how hot it gets.
However, most models prog afternoon temperatures close to at least
15 degrees above normal by Wednesday. Additionally, the airmass
will be very dry under this ridge, so no precipitation is
expected. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
04/18Z TAF Period

VFR conditions are predominately expected along and southwest of a
KHLN to KBZN line, with scattered to broken MVFR conditions
northeast of this line at the KGTF, KLWT, KCTB, and KLWT terminals
through at least 00z this evening. Moist and unstable northwest flow
aloft will bring another day of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms to the plains terminals of KCTB, KHVR, KGTF, and KLWT
this afternoon, with decreasing coverage through the evening hours
tonight. Main threat from any thunderstorm will be gusty and erratic
winds, mainly to 25kts. Mountains will be obscured over Central and
North Central Montana at times through this evening, with improving
ridgetop visibility thereafter. - Moldan

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather
and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  49  77  53  76 /  10  20  10  20
CTB  46  77  50  75 /  10  10  20  20
HLN  52  83  56  83 /   0  10  10  30
BZN  45  79  48  79 /   0  10   0  20
WYS  34  73  37  75 /   0  10   0  20
DLN  43  79  46  81 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  50  78  52  77 /  20  40  20  30
LWT  46  72  48  71 /  20  40  20  50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls