700
FXUS65 KTFX 050500
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1100 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...Aviation Section Updated...

.SYNOPSIS...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue daily through
Saturday for north central Montana with drier conditions expected
south of interstate 90. Temperatures will stay cooler through
Saturday before warming up next week. Well above normal
temperatures and dry conditions are expected through much of next
week.

&&

.UPDATE...

Main update to the overnight forecast period was to increase
humidity where the heaviest rain fell over the plains late this
afternoon into the early evening. This has increased the chance
for fog mainly north and east of Great Falls in the more wind-
protected river valleys. Areas along the east slopes of the
Rockies did not receive as much precipitation and winds should
stay up enough to prevent fog formation there.

Otherwise, the showers and thunderstorms over the plains have
diminished quite a bit over the last couple of hours. Only
isolated showers and thunderstorms are lingering over Hill,
Blaine, Chouteau, Judith Basin, and Fergus Counties as of 8 pm,
and they should diminish through midnight with little additional
impact. -Coulston

&&

.AVIATION...
05/06Z TAF Period

VFR conditions will largely prevail this TAF period. The main
concern for sub-VFR conditions will be for late morning through
early evening showers and thunderstorms across the plains Friday.
The only other concern will be for patchy fog Friday morning across
the plains, but confidence in any fog developing was too low to
warrant mention in TAFs at this time. -AM

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 530 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024/

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected on and off
through Saturday afternoon as northwesterly flow aloft continues
to bring moisture and instability into the region. In general,
these storms are expected to stay below severe limits, however,
some small hail and gusty winds up to 55 mph are possible with
stronger showers. Temperatures closer to normal will stick around
through the weekend before warming up early next week. -thor

Sunday through Thursday...A strong upper level ridge of high
pressure is forecast to move over MT during this period. This
will result in a significant heat wave to move into the CWA by
the middle portion of next week. Depending on how far east the
center of high pressure goes, will depend on exactly how hot it
gets. However, most models prog afternoon temperatures close to
at least 15 degrees above normal by Wednesday. Additionally, the
airmass will be very dry under this ridge, so no precipitation is
expected. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  49  77  53  76 /   0  20  10  20
CTB  46  77  50  75 /  10  10  20  20
HLN  52  83  56  83 /   0  10  10  30
BZN  45  79  48  79 /   0  10   0  20
WYS  34  73  37  75 /   0  10   0  20
DLN  43  79  46  81 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  50  78  52  77 /  10  40  20  30
LWT  46  72  48  71 /  10  40  20  50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls