143
FXUS65 KTFX 051508
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
908 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon and again Saturday across primarily north-central
Montana as a series a mainly weak weather disturbances move
across the region under a northwest flow. Temperatures remain near
to slightly below seasonal averages through Saturday before much
warmer and drier conditions develop next week.

&&

.UPDATE...

The only significant change to the forecast was adding
precipitation chances to the northern Rockies to account for the
showers that have developed over the last couple hours. Some
slight modifications were made to the precipitation chances in
northern Hill and Blaine counties to account for the showers
currently making their way out of southern Alberta and
Saskatchewan.

Otherwise, no major changes made to the going forecast.

-thor


&&

.AVIATION...
05/12Z TAF Period

VFR conditions persist across the area with a weather disturbance
embedded within northwest flow aloft bringing an increase in clouds
across areas near the Canadian border later this morning and
scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across north-
central MT. Isolated more intense showers/thunderstorms this
afternoon across north-central MT could produce some very brief MVFR
cigs/vis along with locally gusty winds. Hoenisch

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 452 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024/

Today through Saturday...

Satellite imagery early this morning shows the next shortwave
upstream of the region in NW flow aloft currently moving into SW
Alberta with additional energy moving into western BC atop a
building upper level ridge off the west coast. Similar to the last
couple of days, expect daily/mainly afternoon showers and
thunderstorms to move southeast across the area today and again
Saturday with todays activity primarily focused across north-
central MT with coverage extending further south across the area
on Saturday but generally remaining north of I-90. Brief heavy
downpours and lightning will be the primarily hazard with convection
today and tomorrow with some potential for small hail and
stronger (40-50 mph) wind gusts across Hill/Blaine counties this
afternoon in closer proximity to the passing shortwave.
Temperatures remain near to slightly below seasonal averages
through Saturday with lower elevation afternoon temperatures
ranging from the mid 70s across north-central MT to the low 80s
across SW MT.

Sunday through next week...

A drier and warmer period begins Sunday with much warmer
temperatures developing next week as the offshore upper ridge
shifts inland. Multi-model ensembles are in good agreement to
shift the ridge axis across the Northern Rockies mid-late next
week, supporting widespread daytime temperatures in the 90s across
most lower elevation locations by Wednesday with temperatures
likely to peak next Thursday. Some moderation in temperatures is
possible by next weekend but this is likely to be the first multi-
day stretch of temperatures exceeding 90 for much of the area this
summer. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  77  53  76  51 /  20  10  20   0
CTB  76  50  74  49 /  10  10  20   0
HLN  84  56  81  54 /  10  10  20   0
BZN  79  49  79  47 /  10   0  20  10
WYS  73  38  74  38 /   0   0  10   0
DLN  79  47  81  46 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  77  51  77  52 /  50  10  30   0
LWT  74  47  70  47 /  40  30  50  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls