951
FXUS65 KTFX 040959
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
359 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue daily through
Saturday over North Central MT, while drier conditions are
expected for areas south of Interstate 90 from Butte to Bozeman.
Afternoon temperatures will generally be below normal through
Saturday as well. Starting Sunday, expect a warming trend, with
afternoon temperatures becoming hot by the middle of next week,
with no precipitation expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday...A northwesterly flow aloft will continue
to reside over the CWA for at least the next 3 days. This will
result in periods of showers/thunderstorms to move from northwest
to southeast through the CWA. Overall, most storms will be on the
light side, but a few stronger storms could produce some gusty
winds, small hail and brief heavy rainfall. Temperatures will
continue to mostly be below normal across the CWA through
Saturday, with the Helena valley being the exception of slightly
warmer temperatures.

Sunday through Thursday...A strong upper level ridge of high
pressure is forecast to move over MT during this period. This will
result in a significant heat wave to move into the CWA by the
middle portion of next week. Depending on how far east the center
of high pressure goes, will depend on exactly how hot it gets.
However, most models prog afternoon temperatures close to at least
15 degrees above normal by Wednesday. Additionally, the airmass
will be very dry under this ridge, so no precipitation is
expected. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
04/06Z TAF Period

Mainly VFR conditions are expected during the overnight hours
tonight as lingering SHRA diminish. Main concern is at KLWT in the
few hours after midnight, as a group of light rain showers will
bring a brief reduction in cigs and vis, though generally both
should remain above MVFR thresholds. Independence Day will bring
another day of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
across the plains, which will bring periods of MVFR to IFR
conditions as they pass through in addition to some briefly gusty
winds and turbulence. Ludwig

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather
and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  74  49  78  53 /  30  10  10  10
CTB  71  46  78  50 /  30  10  10  10
HLN  80  53  84  56 /  10   0  10   0
BZN  74  46  79  48 /  10   0  10   0
WYS  68  35  74  38 /  10   0  10   0
DLN  74  43  80  47 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  74  51  78  52 /  40  20  40  20
LWT  69  45  73  48 /  40  20  30  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls