Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
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700 FXUS65 KTFX 050500 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1100 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...Aviation Section Updated... .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue daily through Saturday for north central Montana with drier conditions expected south of interstate 90. Temperatures will stay cooler through Saturday before warming up next week. Well above normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected through much of next week. && .UPDATE... Main update to the overnight forecast period was to increase humidity where the heaviest rain fell over the plains late this afternoon into the early evening. This has increased the chance for fog mainly north and east of Great Falls in the more wind- protected river valleys. Areas along the east slopes of the Rockies did not receive as much precipitation and winds should stay up enough to prevent fog formation there. Otherwise, the showers and thunderstorms over the plains have diminished quite a bit over the last couple of hours. Only isolated showers and thunderstorms are lingering over Hill, Blaine, Chouteau, Judith Basin, and Fergus Counties as of 8 pm, and they should diminish through midnight with little additional impact. -Coulston && .AVIATION... 05/06Z TAF Period VFR conditions will largely prevail this TAF period. The main concern for sub-VFR conditions will be for late morning through early evening showers and thunderstorms across the plains Friday. The only other concern will be for patchy fog Friday morning across the plains, but confidence in any fog developing was too low to warrant mention in TAFs at this time. -AM Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024/ Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected on and off through Saturday afternoon as northwesterly flow aloft continues to bring moisture and instability into the region. In general, these storms are expected to stay below severe limits, however, some small hail and gusty winds up to 55 mph are possible with stronger showers. Temperatures closer to normal will stick around through the weekend before warming up early next week. -thor Sunday through Thursday...A strong upper level ridge of high pressure is forecast to move over MT during this period. This will result in a significant heat wave to move into the CWA by the middle portion of next week. Depending on how far east the center of high pressure goes, will depend on exactly how hot it gets. However, most models prog afternoon temperatures close to at least 15 degrees above normal by Wednesday. Additionally, the airmass will be very dry under this ridge, so no precipitation is expected. Brusda && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 49 77 53 76 / 0 20 10 20 CTB 46 77 50 75 / 10 10 20 20 HLN 52 83 56 83 / 0 10 10 30 BZN 45 79 48 79 / 0 10 0 20 WYS 34 73 37 75 / 0 10 0 20 DLN 43 79 46 81 / 0 0 0 10 HVR 50 78 52 77 / 10 40 20 30 LWT 46 72 48 71 / 10 40 20 50 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls