Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
042 FXUS65 KTFX 052105 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 305 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through the rest of the afternoon before tapering off by sunset. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will move through north-central and central Montana Saturday bringing one more round of cooler and wetter conditions before the much warmer and drier conditions develop next week. && .DISCUSSION... Today and tomorrow... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are underway across portions of north-central and central Montana. Overall, the severe threat remains low but gusty winds up to 50 mph and half-inch sized hail are still possible with stronger storms. These showers are expected to taper off by 8 PM. Another round of showers will start up after sunrise on Saturday and continue through much of the day. Similar to the past couple days, these showers will primarily impact north-central and central Montana with locally heavy downpours. The probability of severe weather is still less than 10% but small hail and gusty winds are possible. -thor Sunday through next week... A drier and warmer period begins Sunday with much warmer temperatures developing next week as the offshore upper ridge shifts inland. Multi-model ensembles are in good agreement to shift the ridge axis across the Northern Rockies mid-late next week, supporting widespread daytime temperatures in the 90s across most lower elevation locations by Wednesday with temperatures likely to peak next Thursday. Some moderation in temperatures is possible by next weekend but this is likely to be the first multi- day stretch of temperatures exceeding 90 for much of the area this summer. Hoenisch && .AVIATION... 05/18Z TAF Period Moist and unstable northwest flow aloft, which has dominated for the better half of the past week, will bring another round of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to the plains of Central and North Central Montana from this afternoon through the early evening hours tonight. While VFR conditions will predominately prevail through the 0518/0618 TAF period, brief periods of MVFR conditions are possible beneath locally intense showers/storms. Additionally, these showers and storms will likely produce brief periods of gusty and erratic outflow winds. Widespread mountain obscuration is not expected over the next 24 hours. - Moldan Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 53 75 50 80 / 10 30 0 0 CTB 50 74 48 81 / 10 20 0 0 HLN 56 80 54 85 / 10 30 10 0 BZN 48 79 47 79 / 10 20 10 0 WYS 37 72 37 73 / 0 20 0 0 DLN 47 80 45 78 / 0 10 0 0 HVR 51 77 51 83 / 10 30 0 0 LWT 47 70 46 74 / 10 50 10 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls