113
FXXX10 KWNP 121231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Aug 12 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 7 (NOAA Scale
G3).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 12-Aug 14 2024 is 7.00 (NOAA Scale
G3).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 12-Aug 14 2024

             Aug 12       Aug 13       Aug 14
00-03UT       6.33 (G2)    3.67         2.33
03-06UT       7.00 (G3)    4.00         2.00
06-09UT       7.00 (G3)    3.00         2.00
09-12UT       6.67 (G3)    2.33         2.00
12-15UT       6.67 (G3)    2.00         2.00
15-18UT       5.67 (G2)    2.00         2.00
18-21UT       4.67 (G1)    2.67         2.00
21-00UT       3.67         3.33         2.33

Rationale: G1-G3 (Minor-Strong) geomagnetic storms are expected on 12
Aug in response to CME influences.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 12-Aug 14 2024

              Aug 12  Aug 13  Aug 14
S1 or greater   15%     15%     15%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) storms through 14
Aug.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Aug 11 2024 2018 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 12-Aug 14 2024

              Aug 12        Aug 13        Aug 14
R1-R2           75%           75%           75%
R3 or greater   30%           30%           30%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a
chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events, over 12-14 Aug.