216
FXXX10 KWNP 131231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Aug 13 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 8 (NOAA Scale
G4).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 13-Aug 15 2024 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 13-Aug 15 2024

             Aug 13       Aug 14       Aug 15
00-03UT       4.67 (G1)    4.00         3.00
03-06UT       3.33         3.00         2.67
06-09UT       2.33         2.67         2.33
09-12UT       1.67         2.33         2.00
12-15UT       2.00         2.00         1.67
15-18UT       2.67         2.00         1.67
18-21UT       3.67         2.00         1.33
21-00UT       5.67 (G2)    2.33         2.00

Rationale: G2 (Moderate) levels are likely, but diminishing, on 13 Aug
as CME influences dissipate.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 13-Aug 15 2024

              Aug 13  Aug 14  Aug 15
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Aug 12 2024 2257 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 13-Aug 15 2024

              Aug 13        Aug 14        Aug 15
R1-R2           75%           75%           75%
R3 or greater   25%           25%           25%

Rationale: (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a
chance for (R3-Strong) radio blackouts through 15 Aug.