895
FXXX10 KWNP 141231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Aug 14 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 14-Aug 16 2024 is 4.33 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 14-Aug 16 2024

             Aug 14       Aug 15       Aug 16
00-03UT       4.33         1.67         2.33
03-06UT       3.00         1.33         1.67
06-09UT       2.00         1.33         2.00
09-12UT       1.67         1.33         2.33
12-15UT       2.00         1.33         2.33
15-18UT       1.33         1.33         2.33
18-21UT       1.33         1.67         2.33
21-00UT       1.67         1.67         2.33

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 14-Aug 16 2024

              Aug 14  Aug 15  Aug 16
S1 or greater   20%     10%     10%

Rationale: There is a slight, but increasing chance for S1 (Minor)
conditions on 14 Aug following the X1 flare from near center disk.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Aug 14 2024 0640 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 14-Aug 16 2024

              Aug 14        Aug 15        Aug 16
R1-R2           75%           75%           75%
R3 or greater   25%           25%           25%

Rationale: (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a
chance for (R3-Strong) radio blackouts through 16 Aug.