Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
876
FXXX10 KWNP 151231
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Aug 15 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 15-Aug 17 2024 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 15-Aug 17 2024
Aug 15 Aug 16 Aug 17
00-03UT 2.33 2.33 3.00
03-06UT 1.00 2.67 2.67
06-09UT 0.67 2.67 2.67
09-12UT 1.00 2.00 2.00
12-15UT 1.00 1.67 1.67
15-18UT 1.67 2.00 1.67
18-21UT 2.00 3.00 2.67
21-00UT 2.00 2.67 4.00
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 15-Aug 17 2024
Aug 15 Aug 16 Aug 17
S1 or greater 15% 15% 10%
Rationale: A slight chance for S1 (Minor) Storm conditions remains in
the forecast through 17 Aug as a few magnetically complex regions remain
in geoeffective locations.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Aug 14 2024 1549 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 15-Aug 17 2024
Aug 15 Aug 16 Aug 17
R1-R2 75% 75% 75%
R3 or greater 20% 20% 20%
Rationale: (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a
slight chance for (R3-Strong) radio blackouts through 17 Aug as both
regions 3780 and 3784 maintain their delta configurations.