774
FXXX10 KWNP 111231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Aug 11 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 11-Aug 13 2024 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 11-Aug 13 2024

             Aug 11       Aug 12       Aug 13
00-03UT       2.33         5.00 (G1)    3.67
03-06UT       2.33         5.67 (G2)    4.00
06-09UT       4.67 (G1)    5.00 (G1)    3.00
09-12UT       4.00         3.67         2.33
12-15UT       5.67 (G2)    5.00 (G1)    2.00
15-18UT       3.67         4.33         2.00
18-21UT       3.00         3.00         2.67
21-00UT       2.67         3.67         3.33

Rationale: Periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are
likely on 11-12 Aug due to CME influences.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 11-Aug 13 2024

              Aug 11  Aug 12  Aug 13
S1 or greater   20%     20%     20%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation
storms over 11-13  Aug.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Aug 11 2024 0528 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 11-Aug 13 2024

              Aug 11        Aug 12        Aug 13
R1-R2           80%           80%           80%
R3 or greater   30%           30%           30%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a
chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events, through 13 Aug.