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Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
979 FXXX10 KWNP 110031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Aug 11 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 11-Aug 13 2024 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale G2). NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 11-Aug 13 2024 Aug 11 Aug 12 Aug 13 00-03UT 3.67 5.00 (G1) 3.67 03-06UT 4.67 (G1) 5.67 (G2) 4.00 06-09UT 5.67 (G2) 5.00 (G1) 3.00 09-12UT 3.67 3.67 2.33 12-15UT 2.67 5.00 (G1) 2.00 15-18UT 2.00 4.33 2.00 18-21UT 2.33 3.00 2.67 21-00UT 3.33 3.67 3.33 Rationale: Periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely on 11-12 Aug due to the anticipated arrival of multiple CMEs from 07-08 and 10 Aug. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 11-Aug 13 2024 Aug 11 Aug 12 Aug 13 S1 or greater 20% 20% 20% Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms over 11-13 Aug. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Aug 10 2024 0237 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 11-Aug 13 2024 Aug 11 Aug 12 Aug 13 R1-R2 80% 80% 80% R3 or greater 30% 30% 30% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events, on 11-13 Aug.