889
FXXX10 KWNP 161231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Aug 16 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 16-Aug 18 2024 is 5.33 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 16-Aug 18 2024

             Aug 16       Aug 17       Aug 18
00-03UT       2.67         3.00         5.00 (G1)
03-06UT       2.00         2.67         5.33 (G1)
06-09UT       2.00         2.67         4.67 (G1)
09-12UT       2.33         2.00         4.00
12-15UT       1.67         2.67         3.67
15-18UT       2.00         3.33         3.67
18-21UT       3.00         4.33         3.00
21-00UT       2.67         4.33         2.67

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely on 18 Aug due to
the anticipated arrival of a CME from 14 Aug.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 16-Aug 18 2024

              Aug 16  Aug 17  Aug 18
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation
storms over 16-18 Aug.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 16-Aug 18 2024

              Aug 16        Aug 17        Aug 18
R1-R2           70%           70%           70%
R3 or greater   20%           20%           20%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a
slight chance for R3 or greater events, through 18 Aug.