635
FXXX10 KWNP 040031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Jul 04 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 04-Jul 06 2024 is 2.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 04-Jul 06 2024

             Jul 04       Jul 05       Jul 06
00-03UT       2.00         1.67         1.67
03-06UT       1.67         1.67         1.33
06-09UT       1.67         1.67         1.33
09-12UT       1.67         1.33         1.33
12-15UT       2.33         1.33         1.33
15-18UT       2.33         1.33         1.33
18-21UT       2.67         1.33         1.67
21-00UT       2.33         1.33         1.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 04-Jul 06 2024

              Jul 04  Jul 05  Jul 06
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jul 01 2024 1102 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 04-Jul 06 2024

              Jul 04        Jul 05        Jul 06
R1-R2           35%           35%           35%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
over 04-06 Jul.