399
FXUS62 KTBW 051821
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
221 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
A residing high pressure system to the northeast will extend over
the Florida peninsula through Saturday. This, coupled with a low
pressure north of the Bahamas, will result in a weak pressure
gradient that keeps our easterly winds generally calm. Scattered
to numerous thunderstorms remain possible throughout the region.
Perhaps the most concerning issue stems from the maintained high
temperatures over our southwest and west central regions. A heat
advisory has been issued until 7PM EDT for HI values up to 112.
This hot and humid pattern is expected to persist through the
weekend, and further advisories may be warranted in the coming
days.

Looking a little further in time, the high pressure ridge axis
will begin to rebuild over the region next week. Elevated moisture
in the area will continue to contribute to our traditional
scattered to numerous sea breeze driven showers and thunderstorms.
High temperatures will persist throughout the week but heat index
values are currently not expected to reach 108+ advisory criteria.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA are developing this afternoon on the weak
seabreeze with brief and LCL MVFR CIGs/VSBYs thru 01Z. VRF
conditions and light winds return areawide aft 02Z Sat. Expect
more summertime convection Saturday afternoon for flight
restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
Weak pressure gradient to keep winds light and seas slight through
the weekend that will continue into early next week. Main concern
will be scattered to numerous thunderstorms that produce locally
gusty winds and higher seas along with dangerous lightning for
mariners and along area beaches. Small underlying long period
swells may move into the E Gulf waters from the S-SW Gulf into
next week as well.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Abundant moisture and light winds to keep fire concerns minimalized,
but the light winds may produce low dispersion values through the
weekend. Expect daily thunderstorms and dangerous lightning that
may ignite or hold over in dry fuels outside of rain cores.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  93  79  93 /  40  60  30  70
FMY  78  93  78  93 /  40  60  20  70
GIF  76  97  77  96 /  30  50  10  70
SRQ  77  93  78  93 /  40  60  30  70
BKV  75  94  75  94 /  40  60  20  70
SPG  82  93  83  93 /  40  60  40  70

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 1
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 1

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Charlotte-
     Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-
     Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-
     Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-
     Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland
     Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-
     Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Quessenberry
AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...RDavis