179
FXUS62 KTBW 061739
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
139 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
The region is under weak ridging this weekend as a longwave trough
holds down the Central U.S., Beryl moves NW in the W Gulf and an
upper low spins NE of the Bahamas. This weak flow sfc-aloft will
again make for slow moving diurnal convection initiated and
propagating on sea breeze and outflow boundaries while PWATs over 2
inches will again lead to localized heavy rain. Hot temps and high
humidly will continue to produce high daytime heat index values as
well.

These features to rotate around the region into early next week as
the general boundary layer flow shifts to the south and southwest.
Numerous PoPs areawide but highest amounts over the Nature coast.
The mean layer flow remains weak but veers SE-E mid-late week with a
more typical summertime precip pattern and temp/humidly conditions
daily.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA are developing this afternoon on the weak
seabreeze with brief and LCL MVFR CIGs/VSBYs thru 01Z. VRF
conditions and light winds return areawide aft 02Z Sat. Expect
more summertime convection Sunday afternoon for flight
restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
Weak pressure gradient remains over the E Gulf waters with generally
light winds and slight seas continuing into early-mid next week.
Main concern will be thunderstorms producing locally gusty winds,
higher seas, and lightning for mariners. &&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm and humid summertime conditions continue with light winds and
afternoon seabreezes to keep fire weather concerns minimalized.
Light flow will again keep dispersion index values low. Expect
daily afternoon and evening thunderstorms with gusty erratic winds
and dangerous lightning possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  80  93  80  91 /  40  70  40  70
FMY  78  93  78  92 /  40  60  30  60
GIF  78  96  77  94 /  30  60  20  70
SRQ  78  93  78  91 /  40  60  40  70
BKV  75  95  76  93 /  40  60  30  70
SPG  83  93  83  91 /  50  60  50  70

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 2
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Charlotte-
     Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-
     Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-
     Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-
     Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland
     Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-
     Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

RDavis