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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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227 FXUS62 KTBW 301149 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 749 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 748 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Afternoon convection is expected once again today as a light ESE background flow prevails. This should allow for sea breeze development this afternoon along the coast, with early storms forming on this boundary. As the east coast sea breeze moves westward during the afternoon, additional collisions are favored, with more widespread activity developing. KPIE is still likely to be the first terminal with any impacts today, but all terminals will see convection developing shortly thereafter in the vicinity. SWFL terminals are likely to see activity a little earlier today compared to yesterday given this setup as well. While afternoon convection will continue through the week ahead, tomorrow looks like it may be the driest day of the week, with slightly drier air moving in for the day. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 241 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Forecast set on repeat as conditions remain similar to previous days. Ridge axis situated over Florida holds us in the easterly flow through through the beginning of the week. Just like yesterday, this flow favors showers and storms developing along sea breeze and outflow collisions, which will then move, rather slowly, inland. Due to the slow moving nature of showers, isolated, urban street flooding may be an issue. Remember if you come across a flooded street the best option is to turn around, don`t drown. The next feature to shift us out of the current pattern arrives later in the week as a trough dips down and pushes the ridge axis a bit more south and west, bringing back a more SW flow. This flow will favor showers/storms over coastal waters in the morning, pushing on shore and inland as the day goes on. && .MARINE... Issued at 241 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 A few showers and storms already developing along the sea breeze near the nature coast should remain just off the coast. This afternoon however, more showers and storms will develop along sea breeze and outflow boundaries. Some of these may drift over or near the coastal waters. Frequent lightning and strong wind gusts could be possible. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 241 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 No major fire weather concerns through the period as ample moisture remains. Showers and storms are expected this afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 91 77 92 78 / 70 60 60 30 FMY 91 75 91 77 / 70 40 70 30 GIF 93 74 93 76 / 70 40 70 20 SRQ 91 75 91 77 / 70 60 60 30 BKV 92 73 93 74 / 70 60 60 30 SPG 91 79 91 81 / 70 60 60 40 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 2 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 2 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ AVIATION...Flannery PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Pearce