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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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498 FXUS62 KTBW 011341 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 941 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 940 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Scattered convection continues across Gulf Waters this morning as a couple light showers drift onshore in Levy County. Most, however, are starting the day mostly sunny to partly cloudy. When compared to yesterday, the PW value has trended downward slightly. Some guidance has indicated there would be a decline today, and current water vapor satellite imagery shows some drier air advecting across the peninsula. The 10Z XMR sounding showed a PW of 1.78 inches, which is still sufficient, but lower than the approx. 2.1 inches observed here yesterday. The XMR site is upstream in the current flow. However, the TBW 12Z sounding still showed a PW value of 1.93 inches, which means this drier air has yet to get all the way across the peninsula yet. This is why convection is ongoing this morning across coastal waters. With the flow, more of this drier air should work in through the day. While this is far from truly dry, this decline (and the fact that we are on an axis of decreasing moisture) suggests fewer storms this afternoon. Not zero by any means, but not as widespread as the last couple days. With a light ESE flow, similar to regime 6, SWFL has the best potential for storms today, but the entirety of the west coast has a window for storms before the sea breeze boundaries move farther inland and collide over the interior. This is not unlike the last few days. The overall potential for severe weather is low. However, some drying of the mid-levels (noted in the 12Z sounding) does favor a higher potential for downbursts. Light winds also favor heavy rainfall once again today, and frequent lightning should be expected given the depth of storms. Hail is unlikely, though, given 500mb temps of -4C. Overall, the forecast looks on track. No major changes have been made. Expect a warm, humid morning and scattered storms this afternoon. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 722 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Some lingering MVFR to LIFR conditions are impacting the central interior this morning. However, with the sun now rising, this should quickly lift and gradually mix out over the next few hours. Once this occurs, the main concern remaining through the day is for thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening. With a very light background ESE flow today, sea breeze circulations will again be the driving force behind convective development this afternoon. However, the atmosphere does look a little drier today, suggesting less coverage and generally shorter windows for impacts at terminals. It also makes on-station impacts less certain. SWFL has the longest windows, with slightly higher moisture to support more storms in place once again today. Moisture content increases again tomorrow and through the remainder of the week, with a higher potential for impacts at terminals each day. && .MARINE... Issued at 341 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 A ridge of high pressure sitting over the coastal waters will keep light south and southeast flow in place today and Tuesday, turning onshore near the coast each afternoon with the seabreeze. The ridge lifts north on Wednesday, favoring more southeast to easterly flow for the rest of the week. Winds and seas will generally remain well below headline criteria, although daily thunderstorms will produce locally hazardous boating conditions. /MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Anderson DECISION SUPPORT...Anderson UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Flannery && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 341 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 No humidity concerns. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop each day this week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 91 79 93 78 / 60 20 50 40 FMY 91 77 92 78 / 60 30 70 30 GIF 94 77 95 77 / 60 40 60 20 SRQ 90 77 92 78 / 40 20 50 30 BKV 92 74 94 75 / 60 20 50 30 SPG 91 82 92 82 / 50 20 40 40 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 6 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 7 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION...Flannery MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Fleming