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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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344 FXUS62 KTBW 011859 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 259 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 258 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 A sprawling and strong upper-level ridge has settled across the Eastern Half of the CONUS, amplifying the flow across the NE and leading to a weak upper-level low feature off the FL East Coast. At the surface, a the subtropical ridge has retreated slightly farther to the east, with very light easterly flow (much like regime 6) in place. As noted this morning, however, there is some drier air that has worked into the region, which is limiting convection overall today, when compared to the last few days. This looks confined really just to today, however, as a stronger ESE flow should help advect additional moisture back into the region tomorrow. This ESE flow looks to dominate for much of the work week, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing across the region each day in response. This should be mainly afternoon and evening convection. It is also favored to consolidate along the West Coast later in the day. Heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent lightning will be constant concerns through the week, with today having a slightly higher potential for downbursts than the days to follow if storms can grow deep enough to punch through the drier air. So far, though, this drier air has largely meant low-topped convection with limited lightning. As the upper-level ridge flattens out this weekend and the flow becomes more zonal once more, the subtropical ridge looks to build back to the west, bringing a WSW fkow back to the region. This favors earlier convection and more humid mornings late next weekend and into early next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 136 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Convection is developing along sea breeze boundaries this afternoon, mainly remaining in the vicinity of terminals at this time. With such light flow, it is difficult to have confidence in on-station impacts for most terminals. However, thunderstorms moving from SE to NW towards KRSW and KFMY are likely to cause on-station impacts soon. Other terminals will be monitored for additional impacts, which include a low potential for MVFR to IFR conditions and gusty winds. With moisture increasing again for tomorrow, impacts are more likely at terminals beginning tomorrow and lasting through the remainder of the week. && .MARINE... Issued at 258 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 A light ESE flow prevails across coastal waters, turning onshore each afternoon. Given the light winds, though, seas should remain light through the period. However, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible at nearly any time across coastal waters this week, with the greatest coverage late into the evening and overnight and lasting through early morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 258 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Today is the driest day this week with more isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. More widespread showers and storms return tomorrow and remain in the forecast each day through the remainder of the week. With ample moisture, no significant fire weather concerns exist through the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 79 93 78 93 / 20 50 40 70 FMY 77 92 78 94 / 30 70 30 60 GIF 77 95 77 95 / 40 60 20 70 SRQ 77 92 78 94 / 20 50 30 50 BKV 74 94 75 94 / 20 50 30 70 SPG 82 92 82 94 / 20 40 40 60 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 7 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 6 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ Flannery