283
FXUS62 KTBW 031124
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
724 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 722 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

VFR conditions will prevail outside of thunderstorms. Southeast
winds around 5 knots expected this morning, becoming SW 5-10 knots
during the afternoon. Will hold VCTS to cover thunderstorms today
from 18Z through 03Z for all terminals and PROB30 for TS from 21-
23Z. Storms move over the eastern gulf after 03Z with rain-free
conditions and light winds 5 knots or less expected overnight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Ridge axis of the surface high over the Atlantic will stretch across
central FL, keeping the area in a southeast flow. Ample moisture
will favor scattered afternoon showers that develop in the
southeast part of FL then traverse northwestward through the
afternoon/evening. Showers and storms could also develop along sea
breeze collisions and outflows from previous showers. Land breeze
showers could develop over the coastal waters overnight, however
these will continue to move away from land. This pattern persists
through most of the week. A slight shift in the pattern should
occur over the weekend as a drier air mass moves over the area
from the Atlantic. This will likely limit thunderstorm
development. Available moisture will likely stick to the west
coast during this time, so depending on sea breeze development, a
few showers along the coast could be possible. By Sunday, the
abundant moisture returns as well as the likelihood of scattered
afternoon showers and storms. High temperature will reach in to
the 90s each afternoon with heat indices often reaching the triple
digits. Some relief from the heat will happen for areas that
receive showers and storms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 158 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

High pressure over the area is maintaining a light east/southeast
flow. Afternoon sea breeze development will push winds onshore.
Some showers and storms possible each afternoon and again
overnight with land breeze development. otherwise, no major marine
concerns through the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  94  79  94  79 /  60  50  60  30
FMY  95  77  95  79 /  60  30  50  20
GIF  95  77  95  77 /  70  40  60  10
SRQ  93  77  94  79 /  60  50  50  30
BKV  94  75  95  75 /  70  50  60  30
SPG  94  82  94  83 /  60  50  50  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 1
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 2

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Carlisle