462
FXUS62 KTAE 050134
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
934 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 934 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

The forecast is running right on track this evening. Scattered
afternoon showers and thunderstorms are diminishing as expected,
leaving a warm and balmy night ahead.

Afternoon thunderstorm activity on Friday will be somewhat
suppressed despite the very moist air mass, due to having a
strong 500 mb high along the northeast Gulf coast. On one hand,
the mid-level high will bring an even warmer day than we had
today. On the other hand, it will continue to act as our shield
against Hurricane Beryl, keeping it moving west this evening
toward the Yucatan Peninsula while avoiding letting it sniff out
the mid-latitudes too soon.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 303 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Hot and humid conditions are expected to continue through Friday
with scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms across the
area throughout the late morning and afternoon. Locally heavy
rainfall and gusty winds will be possible with any storms that
develop. Weak steering flow along with high rainfall rates may
together create a few spots of flood advisory or flash flood level
flooding, particularly over urban areas. However, widespread
flooding is not anticipated. Due in part to the ridging overhead,
high temperatures are mostly forecast in the mid to upper 90s inland
and the low 90s near the coast. Max heat indices are forecast to
climb into the 106-112 degree range during the afternoon, and a heat
advisory has been issued area-wide for Friday. While the explicit
criteria (108F) may be a bit borderline in some areas, the prolonged
nature of this heat wave along with increased vulnerability due to
the holiday weekend leads us to go ahead with the advisory at this
point.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 303 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Any showers and storms from Friday afternoon should be in their
waning stages to start the Short Term period. That will lead to a
mild night with lows in the middle to upper 70s with a few areas of
fog possible by dawn Saturday. A weakening cold front nears the
region Saturday afternoon and will keep storm chances in the
forecast Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Temperatures climb
into the lower to middle 90s Saturday afternoon before dropping into
the middle to upper 70s Saturday night.

An H5 ridge overhead will weaken slightly as a trough swings through
the Great Lakes over the weekend. This trough will send a cold front
into the Southeast Saturday and may lead to more widespread showers
and thunderstorms along it; the best opportunity for that is
currently expected to be across our Alabama and Georgia Counties.
Any storms that develop will be capable of producing gusty winds and
locally heavy rain. Outside of the rain, temperatures will once
again climb into the lower to middle 90s with heat indices
approaching Heat Advisory criteria, or 108 degrees or higher.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 303 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Saturday`s cold front will be in the process of stalling across the
region on Sunday and will be the focal point for additional showers
and storms. Ample moisture combined with daytime heating will lead
to additional shower and storm potential each afternoon as the H5
ridge hangs out overhead. Temperatures during the day will generally
run in the lower to middle 90s with overnight lows in the middle
70s. Heat indices each afternoon will continue to run near Heat
Advisory criteria, or 108 degrees or higher.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 725 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

A few isolated TSRA have developed this afternoon. These have been
generally short lived and fall apart about 15-30 minutes after
developing. Otherwise, VFR conditions continue through the next 24
hours. Can`t rule out patchy fog or low stratus overnight, but
confidence isn`t high enough to make wholesale categorical
changes. If it does develop, the IFR cigs and/or MVFR vsbys are
possible, slowly mixing out to MVFR/VFR cigs late in the morning.
During the afternoon, scattered afternoon TSRA is expected across
the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Isolated showers, even a few thunderstorms, are possible the next
couple of nights into the morning hours. Winds will generally be out
of the south to southwest with a slight uptick in winds anticipated
early next week. Hurricane Beryl will bring a long period swell that
arrives Friday and continue through the weekend before subsiding
early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

A very warm and moist air mass is expected to remain over the area
through the weekend and into early next week. Daily showers and
thunderstorms are expected with locally heavy rainfall and gusty,
erratic winds possible. Otherwise, there are no fire weather
concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast each
day. Widespread flooding is not anticipated over the next several
days. However, scattered showers and storms remain possible the
next several days. Any one of these thunderstorms has the
potential to drop a couple inches of rain in a short amount of
time. Nuisance flooding is the main concern for areas that see the
heavy rain, especially in urban and/or poor drainage areas along
with those that have seen the heavy rain the past few days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   77  95  77  95 /  20  60  20  60
Panama City   80  91  79  90 /  20  40  30  60
Dothan        77  95  76  94 /  30  60  40  70
Albany        77  95  76  95 /  20  50  30  60
Valdosta      77  94  77  96 /  30  60  20  60
Cross City    76  93  76  93 /  30  60  20  50
Apalachicola  80  90  80  90 /  10  30  20  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ to 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/
     Friday for FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-
     128-134.

GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM EDT Friday for GAZ120>131-
     142>148-155>161.

AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for ALZ065>069.

GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Haner
NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...Reese
LONG TERM....Reese
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...Reese
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Reese