442
FXUS62 KTAE 050524
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
124 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 303 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Hot and humid conditions are expected to continue through Friday
with scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms across the
area throughout the late morning and afternoon. Locally heavy
rainfall and gusty winds will be possible with any storms that
develop. Weak steering flow along with high rainfall rates may
together create a few spots of flood advisory or flash flood level
flooding, particularly over urban areas. However, widespread
flooding is not anticipated. Due in part to the ridging overhead,
high temperatures are mostly forecast in the mid to upper 90s inland
and the low 90s near the coast. Max heat indices are forecast to
climb into the 106-112 degree range during the afternoon, and a heat
advisory has been issued area-wide for Friday. While the explicit
criteria (108F) may be a bit borderline in some areas, the prolonged
nature of this heat wave along with increased vulnerability due to
the holiday weekend leads us to go ahead with the advisory at this
point.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 303 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Any showers and storms from Friday afternoon should be in their
waning stages to start the Short Term period. That will lead to a
mild night with lows in the middle to upper 70s with a few areas of
fog possible by dawn Saturday. A weakening cold front nears the
region Saturday afternoon and will keep storm chances in the
forecast Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Temperatures climb
into the lower to middle 90s Saturday afternoon before dropping into
the middle to upper 70s Saturday night.

An H5 ridge overhead will weaken slightly as a trough swings through
the Great Lakes over the weekend. This trough will send a cold front
into the Southeast Saturday and may lead to more widespread showers
and thunderstorms along it; the best opportunity for that is
currently expected to be across our Alabama and Georgia Counties.
Any storms that develop will be capable of producing gusty winds and
locally heavy rain. Outside of the rain, temperatures will once
again climb into the lower to middle 90s with heat indices
approaching Heat Advisory criteria, or 108 degrees or higher.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 303 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Saturday`s cold front will be in the process of stalling across the
region on Sunday and will be the focal point for additional showers
and storms. Ample moisture combined with daytime heating will lead
to additional shower and storm potential each afternoon as the H5
ridge hangs out overhead. Temperatures during the day will generally
run in the lower to middle 90s with overnight lows in the middle
70s. Heat indices each afternoon will continue to run near Heat
Advisory criteria, or 108 degrees or higher.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 124 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

VFR conditions should prevail for the majority of the
evening outside of MVFR visibilities at KTLH and KABY from 10z to
around 13z. VCTS will begin tomorrow around 18-20z across all sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Isolated showers, even a few thunderstorms, are possible the next
couple of nights into the morning hours. Winds will generally be out
of the south to southwest with a slight uptick in winds anticipated
early next week. Hurricane Beryl will bring a long period swell that
arrives Friday and continue through the weekend before subsiding
early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

A very warm and moist air mass is expected to remain over the area
through the weekend and into early next week. Daily showers and
thunderstorms are expected with locally heavy rainfall and gusty,
erratic winds possible. Otherwise, there are no fire weather
concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast each
day. Widespread flooding is not anticipated over the next several
days. However, scattered showers and storms remain possible the
next several days. Any one of these thunderstorms has the
potential to drop a couple inches of rain in a short amount of
time. Nuisance flooding is the main concern for areas that see the
heavy rain, especially in urban and/or poor drainage areas along
with those that have seen the heavy rain the past few days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   95  77  95  77 /  60  30  60  30
Panama City   91  79  90  79 /  40  30  60  40
Dothan        95  76  94  75 /  60  50  70  30
Albany        95  76  95  76 /  50  40  60  30
Valdosta      94  77  96  76 /  60  30  60  30
Cross City    93  76  93  76 /  60  30  50  30
Apalachicola  90  80  90  79 /  30  20  60  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning to 9 PM
     EDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-
     112-114-115-118-127-128-134.

GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM EDT this evening
     for GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161.

AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for ALZ065>069.

GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...Reese
LONG TERM....Reese
AVIATION...Worster
MARINE...Reese
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Reese