Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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331 FXUS62 KTAE 030142 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 942 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 940 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Temperatures have cooled sooner this evening due to the cloud cover and scattered showers and thunderstorms earlier this evening. Quiet weather is expected for most of the region for the overnight hours, although temperatures will remain warm and muggy in the mid-upper 70s. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible around daybreak along the Emerald Coast, with more widespread scattered showers and thunderstorms expected during the afternoon hours for the region. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Wednesday) Issued at 314 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Upper level ridge remains in control of the weather pattern through Wednesday while plenty of deep-layer tropical moisture remains in place thanks to moist east and southeasterly flow. A weak boundary on the edge of a surface high that noses down the eastern seaboard will serve as a focus for storms to develop on Wednesday across our Georgia counties along with airmass storms and convection being forced by the northward moving seabreeze. Similar to this afternoon, storms will get going late in the morning and early afternoon hours and generally move northward through the day Wednesday. With a very muggy airmass in place, heat indices will again remain a concern. Similar to Tuesday, not all locations will see heat indices above 108 (criteria for heat advisory), but most locations across our Florida counties and into extreme southern Georgia where rainfall doesn`t occur, or develops late, will likely hit a 108 heat index. && .SHORT TERM... && .LONG TERM... && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 711 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through this evening along a decaying frontal boundary, mainly affecting the VLD terminal into the late evening hours. Winds will become calm and low ceilings are expected to fall to IFR/LIFR conditions for TLH, DHN, ABY, and VLD terminals during the morning hours. Ceilings are expected to lift by 14Z-15Z Wednesday, with more showers and thunderstorms expected for the afternoon. The ECP terminal will likely see shower and thunderstorm activity soon after daybreak, and should end by mid-afternoon as the seabreeze pushes the convective activity further inland. && .MARINE... Issued at 314 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Generally south to southwest winds are expected through much of the week, and seas should be around 1 to 2 feet as a result. Scattered showers and storms are expected through today, with activity generally greatest in the overnight and early morning hours as the diurnal land breeze circulation is at its peak. Long period swell from Hurricane Beryl will arrive late Friday into Saturday and linger over the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 314 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 The wet pattern from the last few days and relative humidities staying above 45% through the next few days will keep fire concerns low through the period. The only concerns will be lower dispersions across south-central Georgia and the southeast Florida Big Bend. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 314 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 A very warm and moist airmass is forecast to remain over the area through the upcoming week. Scattered to sometimes widespread showers and storms are expected daily, and locally heavy rainfall will remain possible throughout the period. Widespread flooding is not expected, but several instances of nuisance flooding will be possible across the area. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 76 92 76 93 / 20 70 30 60 Panama City 78 90 77 91 / 30 60 20 50 Dothan 75 92 75 93 / 30 60 20 50 Albany 75 92 75 93 / 30 60 20 50 Valdosta 76 93 75 93 / 50 70 30 60 Cross City 75 93 75 94 / 50 70 50 60 Apalachicola 79 88 78 89 / 30 50 40 50 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Wednesday for FLZ108-112-114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Dobbs SHORT TERM...Merrifield LONG TERM....Merrifield AVIATION...Montgomery MARINE...Merrifield FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs HYDROLOGY...Merrifield