259
FXUS62 KTAE 041725
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
125 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1023 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

The heat advisory has been expanded area-wide today due to the
prolonged nature of this heat wave and the extra vulnerability
with the July 4th holiday. Otherwise, the previous forecast is
generally on track.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 406 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Upper ridge remains situated over the southeast through the
fourth of July with a moist and unstable airmass at the surface.
Afternoon thunderstorms will be driven by the seabreeze and perhaps
airmass thunderstorms in our SE AL and SW GA counties as no synoptic
forcing mechanisms appear evident today. As such, a later start in
convective activity appears possible today compared to the past few
days. With delayed convection, temperatures are expected to reach
and/or exceed heat advisory criteria as there will be less
thunderstorm coverage during the onset of peak heating that will
cool the air down. Decided to issue a heat advisory covering all of
our FL counties, all of SE AL, and southernmost tier of SW GA
counties as heat indices will range from 108-111 across the
aforementioned areas. Make sure to drink plenty of water, wear light
and loose clothing, and limit time outdoors today.

High temperatures are expected to reach the low to mid 90s this
afternoon with lows in the upper 70s this evening.

&&

.SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 406 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Upper level ridging holds through the forecast period, with daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms expected. An upper level
trough on Friday slides across the Great Lakes, flattening the
ridge for the weekend. A front is expected to trail into the
southeastern US, which may lead to more widespread showers and
storms. Severe weather is not expected at this time, but heavy
rain and gusty winds are possible.

In terms of temperatures, warm and muggy conditions continue. We
continue to see highs range generally in the mid to upper 90s most
days with heat index values ranging from 105-113 in the FL
counties, SE AL, along our FL/GA border, and creeping into the
I-75 corridor. Overnight temperatures will not see much in terms
of temperature or humidity reprieve. With the prolonged heat in
the forecast, consider taking safety precautions when doing
outdoor activities. You can learn more about heat safety at
weather.gov/heat.

Long-period swell from Hurricane Beryl is forecast to arrive Friday
and last into the weekend. This swell will likely cause extremely
dangerous rip currents and cause erosion along area beaches.

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 123 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Scattered to widespread showers and storms are expected across the
area this afternoon and evening. A lull is expected overnight
before additional showers develop in the mid to late morning hours
Friday. Mostly VFR conditions are expected outside of showers,
storms, and during a few hours of MVFR ceilings in the morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 406 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected this
morning. Increased nocturnal and early morning precipitation
returns for the weekend due to the diurnal land breeze
circulation. Winds will generally fluctuate from the south to
west, with winds increasing a touch early next week. A long
period swell from Hurricane Beryl will arrive Friday and gradually
subside over the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 406 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Conditions are expected to remain moist with high rain chances
through the weekend keeping fire weather concerns low. The only
immediate concerns at this time are low dispersions across portions
of SW GA today.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 406 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

No major changes to the forecast. Daily showers and thunderstorms
are expected over the next week or so, and with the tropical
airmass in place, locally heavy rainfall is possible. Widespread
flooding isn`t expected, but nuisance flooding remains possible
especially over saturated, poor drainage, and urban areas.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   77  95  77  95 /  20  60  10  70
Panama City   79  91  79  91 /  10  50  10  60
Dothan        76  95  76  93 /  20  70  20  70
Albany        77  94  77  94 /  20  60  20  70
Valdosta      76  95  76  95 /  20  60  20  70
Cross City    76  93  75  94 /  30  50  10  50
Apalachicola  79  89  79  90 /  10  40  10  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for
     FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134.

GA...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for GAZ120>131-142>148-
     155>161.

AL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ALZ065>069.

GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Worster
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...KR
FIRE WEATHER...Worster
HYDROLOGY...KR