540
FXUS62 KTAE 082302
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
702 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 347 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

We`ll remain on the western side of an upper level ridge tonight,
while Tropical Storm Beryl gets absorbed into an upper level trough.
This should lead to quiet conditions tonight and leave us with a mix
of clouds. Tomorrow, the upper level low lifts to the northeast,
which will pull a slug of moisture into the region. Another day of
scattered to widespread showers, spreading from south to north.
Heavy rain will be the main hazard, and localized flooding will be
possible in areas that have training or slow moving storms. In terms
of the heat, FL counties continue to flirt with Heat Advisory
criteria. Uncertainty remains if these will be realized since storms
may form earlier in the day. Highs for Tuesday are suppose to be in
the low to mid 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 347 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

West to southwesterly mid-low-level flow maintains a tropical
airmass as the remnants of Beryl races across the OH/TN Valley while
merging with a frontal zone. Model guidance suggests bands
convection streaming ENE from the Northern Gulf Coast into our
service area. Axis of highest PoP shifts from the FL Panhandle/SE AL
early Wednesday to the FL Big Bend/I-75 Corridor by the afternoon
before dwindling inland after sunset. Heavy rain is likely to be a
concern given forecast Precipitable Water in the 2.2-2.4" range. The
tradeoff to this upcoming wet weather is relatively "cooler"
temperatures and what appears to be sub-advisory level heat indices
(though still hot). High temperatures are slated to be mainly in
the low 90s with lows in the mid/upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 347 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

The region gets sandwiched between a subtropical ridge attempting to
nudge in from Bermuda and upper troughing to our north to begin the
long-term period. A front sagging south ushers in relatively drier
air from the north, thus limiting convective coverage late week. As
ridging becomes better established this weekend into early next
week, we should revert to more of a typical summertime pattern
characterized by diurnally driven showers/thunderstorms initially
forced by the seabreeze and hot/muggy conditions. Overall, expect a
heating trend with daily highs in the mid-90s and triple-digit heat
indices. Overnight lows remain in the sultry 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 647 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Continued showers and thunderstorms are expected at VLD, DHN, and
ABY through the 03 UTC this evening. Storms should wain through
the overnight period, before getting an early start on Tuesday
across the Florida Panhandle. These storms will initially impact
ECP through the mid morning hours, before spreading areawide to
impact the remainder of the terminals through the afternoon and
evening hours on Tuesday. Expect brief periods of MVFR to LIFR
conditions with thunderstorms that impact any terminal. There is a
small signal that MVFR CIGs could develop at DHN during the early
morning hours prior to sunrise, so a brief line was added for this
possibility, and may be amended at a later time if these
restrictions do not develop.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 347 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Offshore buoys were reporting SE to SW winds around 10 kts with
1-3-ft seas and a dominant period of 6-8 seconds this afternoon.

From CWF Synopsis...Mainly west to southwest winds at 10 knots or
less prevail through the next several days. Lingering swells from
Beryl maintain a dominant wave period of about 7 seconds and seas
of 3 to 4 feet into mid-week. Conditions improve thereafter with
the primary marine concern being daily chances for thunderstorms
capable of locally gusty winds, lightning, and waterspouts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 347 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

The main fire weather concerns will be high dispersions on
Wednesday and Thursday. Otherwise, wet weather persist Tuesday
with scattered to widespread showers and tstorms. A weak front
moves through midweek, which will lower moisture over the region.
Showers and thunderstorms remain possible; however, the best
chances look to be over the FL counties midweek.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 347 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Wet weather sticks around into mid-week before rain chances drop to
below average Thursday-Friday. Heavy rain tomorrow could lead to
instances of flash or nuisance flooding. It would not be surprising
to see a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) introduced by the WPC
along/south of the FL state line in future outlooks for Tuesday.
Forecast rain amounts are generally less than 2" (isolated higher).
On the riverine front, there are currently no concerns.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   78  91  76  92 /  30  90  10  50
Panama City   81  90  80  87 /  30  70  50  60
Dothan        76  93  75  90 /  30  80  20  40
Albany        76  93  78  93 /  40  80  10  40
Valdosta      76  93  77  94 /  40  90  20  50
Cross City    77  90  76  92 /  40  90  20  40
Apalachicola  82  89  81  90 /  50  80  20  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ120>131-142>148-
     155>161.

AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ065>069.

GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KR
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...Bunker
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...KR
HYDROLOGY...IG3