546
FXUS62 KTAE 071012
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
612 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 329 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Overall, today is expected to be similar to yesterday. A very moist
airmass remains in place across the region with precipitable water
values above 2 inches. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon along leftover
mesoscale surface boundaries and the sea breeze. Weak steering flow
coupled with the tropical environment will lead to pockets of
locally heavy rain with isolated flash flooding possible. Convection
will gradually diminish after sunset, but it may linger a few hours
into the night.

Another hot afternoon is expected with peak heat index values
generally between 105-110. A heat advisory has been issued across
the area most likely to see widespread heat indices of 108 or
higher. There is a possibility that the advisory could be expanded
northward this morning depending on cloud trends and expected
convective evolution. If convection holds off until late in the
afternoon, then areas farther north could also see 108+ heat
indices.

&&

.SHORT and LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 329 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

The ridging aloft pattern continues through the short and long
term forecast with similar conditions expected each day. Troughing
near the Great Lakes will serve to keep the ridge center to our
south resulting in slightly lower heights than what could be. This
will also keep temperatures slightly lower than what they could
be if the ridge were to be overhead, though it will still be
notably hot as a moist airmass remains at the surface through the
duration of the forecast. This will keep rain chances elevated
each day across the area as seabreeze and airmass thunderstorms
are expected to occur each afternoon. Daytime highs will remain in
the mid to upper 90s, and with humid conditions each day, heat
advisories appear likely next week as heat indices approach and
perhaps exceed 108.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Scattered pockets of MVFR ceilings will quickly become VFR after
sunrise. For this afternoon, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop areawide with TEMPO TSRA shown
in all TAFs.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 329 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible through the
next few days, generally in the overnight and morning hours.
Variable calm winds will prevail through Monday before seeing a
slight uptick as they become southerly. As Hurricane Beryl treks
across the Gulf to our south, long period swells will move into the
area which will subside early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 329 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Fire weather concerns are expected to remain minimal with a moist
airmass in place and a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Heat index values will be high each afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 329 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Generally isolated and scattered thunderstorms are expected
each day as a moist unstable airmass remains situated over the
region. There are no immediate hydrological concerns, though some of
these storms may possess locally heavy rainfall which could produce
localized flash flooding, particularly over urban areas. There are
also no riverine concerns at this time.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   93  77  95  77 /  60  20  70  20
Panama City   91  79  91  80 /  40  10  60  30
Dothan        95  75  94  75 /  70  50  70  20
Albany        93  76  92  76 /  70  50  80  20
Valdosta      95  76  95  75 /  60  40  80  20
Cross City    94  76  93  77 /  50  20  80  30
Apalachicola  89  79  89  81 /  30  10  60  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning to 8 PM
     EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-
     112-114-115-118-127-128-134.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for GAZ155>160.

AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Worster
LONG TERM....Worster
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Worster
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Worster