Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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801 FXUS62 KTAE 020146 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 946 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 936 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 The forecast is on track, so no changes to the forecast are forthcoming this evening. Satellite-derived Precipitable Water (PW) imagery shows a large area of onshore PW values in the 2-2.25 inch range. PWs increase to an extremely moist 2.4 inches over the Gulf waters south of the Emerald Coast. In the seasonably unstable and very moist air mass, convection will bubble up overnight over the 85-degree Gulf waters, loosely focusing along a boundary near of just offshore the Forgotten Coast, perhaps being enhanced overnight by the landbreeze. For example at 9 pm, Apalachicola observed a light NNE breeze, while Buoy 42036 observed a light southwest breeze. So convection will fire off overnight in this regime, spreading onshore around daybreak. The environment could favor non-supercell waterspouts in the climatologically favored hours just after sunrise. Waterspouts tend to form beneath dark, flat cloud bases under building convective towers or agitated towering cumulus, sometimes with only a hint of rain. Convection will then build inland across our Florida counties during the morning and early afternoon. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Tuesday) Issued at 207 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 A slight weakness between two H5 ridges is allowing the region to see a weak cold front enter the Southeast. However, a 594dm H5 ridge builds in from the west and cause the front to stall over the region during the near term. Combine this with ample moisture with precipitable water values (PWATs) between 2.1" to 2.4" and possible boundary interactions with the seabreeze and outflows means there is the potential for scattered to numerous showers and storms again Tuesday. Confidence isn`t quite there to extend the Flood Watch into Tuesday at this time. That said, there remains the chance for some very heavy rain within any of the stronger storms, which could lead to localized flooding in urban and poor- drainage areas. The weak cold front should be just strong enough to knock down daytime highs a few degrees, especially when you factor in possible cloud cover and showers/storms around the area, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. A bit of drier air at the surface should also bring heat indices down to between 98 to 105 degrees Tuesday afternoon. Overnight lows tonight will remain quite mild with temperatures remaining in the middle to upper 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 207 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 The short term will serve as a bit of a transition period between the wetter pattern we`ve been in and another ridge settling in over the area. The stalled front overhead is forecast to wash out on Wednesday but could still provide a bit of a focusing mechanism for shower and thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon. A few of these storms could produce locally heavy rainfall and could cause isolated flooding issues if it falls over already saturated areas. Very humid conditions will continue to persist, as high temperatures are only forecast in the low to mid 90s but heat indices will max out in the 105 to 112 degree range. Lows will remain quite warm in the mid 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 207 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Hotter and slightly drier conditions are expected for the long term as deep layer ridging sets up over the area. This ridge will help suppress showers and thunderstorms with only an isolated to scattered chance generally expected in the afternoons. High temperatures will also soar into the mid to upper 90s or even near 100 once again, with max heat indices in the 106-114 degree range. If this forecast holds, several days of heat advisories appear likely. Lows will continue to not be helpful in cooling off, only dropping into the mid to upper 70s in the overnights. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 749 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 The air mass will remain moist and unstable for the next 24 hours. Ongoing convection near the terminals will fade and dissipate in the first 1-3 hours after sunset, with convectively quiet conditions late this evening and overnight. As we approach sunrise, a large area of showers and thunderstorms will develop near the coast east of Apalachicola, with the showers and storms developing inland toward TLH and perhaps VLD during the morning and early afternoon. Other terminals will be prone to more isolated and discrete thunderstorms during the afternoon. With the moist air mass, a few hours of IFR and MVFR cigs are possible at all terminals in the hours around sunrise. && .MARINE... Issued at 207 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 South to southwest winds are expected through much of the week. Seas should be around 1 to 2 feet as a result. Scattered showers and storms are expected through the early portion of the week, with activity generally greatest in the overnight and early morning hours as the diurnal land breeze circulation is at its peak. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 207 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Hot and moist conditions are expected through the next several days with scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms each day. Some storms could produce locally heavy rainfall along with gusty and erratic winds. Otherwise, there are no fire weather concerns. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 207 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 A flood watch remains in effect for most of the area this evening. Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected across much of the area today, some of which may produce locally heavy rainfall. Since storm motions are fairly slow, some flooding may occur if heavy rainfall rates remain parked over the same areas for a prolonged period of time. Widespread 1 to 3 inches of rainfall is expected, with isolated higher amounts possible. Another round of locally heavy rainfall may be possible on Tuesday, but confidence is too low to extend the Flood Watch at this point. If we get a lot of heavy rainfall today and remain confident in heavy rainfall tomorrow, the watch may be extended through tomorrow evening. No river flooding is expected at this time. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 77 89 75 92 / 40 70 30 60 Panama City 79 89 78 90 / 60 70 30 50 Dothan 76 90 74 91 / 40 70 30 60 Albany 76 89 73 92 / 50 70 30 50 Valdosta 76 90 75 92 / 50 70 40 70 Cross City 76 91 75 94 / 30 60 40 60 Apalachicola 80 88 79 88 / 40 70 30 40 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for FLZ015>019-026>029- 034-115-118-127-128-134. High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for FLZ108-112- 114-115. GA...Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for GAZ143>148-155>161. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Reese SHORT TERM...Merrifield LONG TERM....Merrifield AVIATION...Haner MARINE...Merrifield FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield HYDROLOGY...Merrifield