Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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849 FXUS62 KTAE 021030 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 630 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 352 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Today will bring another wet day across a majority of the region as the remnants of the frontal boundary that passed through the region on Monday is expected to surge north through the morning and afternoon hours today. This is due to winds becoming southerly through the low levels as surface high pressure makes its way off the Northeast coastline today. The frontal boundary is expected to provide a focus for thunderstorms through the morning before the seabreeze likely interacts with it during the afternoon hours. WPC has issued a slight risk (Level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall across portions of the Florida Big Bend and SW Georgia, and a marginal risk (Level 1 of 4) for the remainder of the area today. This is primarily due to the high PWATS of 2-2.25 inches currently being observed across the region, combined with the lingering frontal boundary providing extra forcing for ascent across the region. These showers and thunderstorms will likely be able to produce quick instances of 3-5 inches locally, with widespread forecast rainfall totals of 1-2 inches generally expected today. Dry air still remains in place through the mid-levels, which is aiding in DCAPE values approaching or nearly exceeding 1000 J/Kg. These values of DCAPE combined with around 2000-2500 J/Kg of SBCAPE will provide enough energy for strong wind gusts with the strongest thunderstorms that develop today. Overall, with widespread showers and thunderstorms forecast today, highs will generally remain in the low 90s areawide today; however, with dewpoints remaining in the mid to upper 70s, heat index values will once again be in the 108-110 range for portions of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, and portions of SE Alabama as well. This has prompted the issuance of a heat advisory for much of these areas today. Low temperatures will generally fall into the mid 70s tonight. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 352 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 The front from Tuesday may still be lingering in the region Wednesday, which could support scattered to widespread shower and thunderstorm development before washing out. This will be the beginning of the transition period from wetter weather to drier weather. Thursday`s rain chances continue to trend ever so slightly lower than Wednesday. Unfortunately, the moist airmass will still be in place, which means we could still have some locally heavy pockets of rain. Nuisance to isolated flash flooding will be possible, especially for areas that are already well saturated. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 352 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 No major changes to the forecast as the message continues to be hotter and slightly drier conditions for the long term. Upper level ridging holds over us, which will help suppress thunderstorm develop. High temperatures will generally range from the mid to upper 90s through the period. Heat index values continue to range from about 100-110 much of the time, though the max values have peaked up to about 110-116 degrees. Lows remain sultry, in the mid to upper 70s, and not providing any reprieve. With the upcoming holiday weekend in store for many of us, now is a great time to review your heat safety plans. Some pro-tips if you plan on spending some time outdoors: wear sunscreen, drink plenty of water, wear light and loose fitted clothing, take frequent breaks if doing strenuous activities, go indoors to cool off. Don`t forget you can help out by checking on the elderly, young children, those sensitive to heat, and pets. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 626 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 MVFR to LIFR CIGs are being observed across all terminals this morning. These restrictions look to continue through the early morning hours before lifting to VFR conditions through the late morning and afternoon hours. Another round of widespread showers and thunderstorms look to develop in Apalachee Bay and push north throughout the day today, which may cause brief restrictions of MVFR to LIFR levels through the afternoon and evening hours. These showers and thunderstorms should dissipate shortly after sunset at all terminals Tuesday. IFR to LIFR CIGs look to develop at DHN, ABY, and VLD once again Wednesday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 352 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 South to southwest winds are expected through much of the week. Seas should be around 1 to 2 feet as a result. Scattered showers and storms are expected through today, with activity generally greatest in the overnight and early morning hours as the diurnal land breeze circulation is at its peak. Conditions will favor waterspouts this morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 352 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 With deep tropical moisture lingering over the region for the next several days, high chances for showers and thunderstorms for a majority of the area are expected to continue. The high rain chances combined with significant rainfall observed over the last several days, will lead to limited fire weather concerns for the next several days. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 352 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 One more day for the potential of locally heavy rainfall is forecast; however, confidence was much lower in terms of issuing or extending the Flood Watch. As a result, we opted to let the original watch expire last night. Near term CAMs and ensembles do suggest that there are chance some areas, areas including and east of Grady County, GA east and from Leon and Wakulla County, FL, could see an additional 3-5 inches of rain. But this would be highly dependent on how showers and thunderstorms develop today. Storm total rainfall for today is quite variable. For southeast AL and areas west and along the Flint River in GA, totals will be around 0.10-0.75". For areas east of the Flint, about 0.50-1.25" of rain are forecast. The western FL Panhandle amounts range from 0.25-1.25, wettest south of I-10. And for the FL Big Bend amounts could vary from 0.25-1.5", with locally higher amounts of 2-3" possible. Precip chances slowly begin to wane Wednesday into Thursday, as we transition from a wetter pattern to a more dry one. No riverine flooding is expected at this time. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 90 75 92 76 / 90 30 60 20 Panama City 89 78 90 78 / 80 40 40 10 Dothan 91 74 92 75 / 70 30 50 20 Albany 89 73 91 75 / 70 40 50 20 Valdosta 91 75 92 75 / 80 50 70 30 Cross City 92 75 93 75 / 70 60 60 40 Apalachicola 87 79 88 78 / 90 30 50 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning to 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ007>019-026>029-108-112- 114. High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114- 115. GA...None. AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ068-069. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Bunker SHORT TERM...KR LONG TERM....KR AVIATION...Bunker MARINE...KR FIRE WEATHER...Bunker HYDROLOGY...KR