Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
410 FXUS62 KTAE 031051 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 651 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 336 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Upper level ridging situated on top of rich tropical moisture will continue through today. High pressure will slide down the eastern seaboard with east-southeast surface flow with a rich theta boundary along its axis, serving as a weak boundary to initiate storms this afternoon. PoP`s will generally max out around 70%, particularly in our FL counties where the seabreeze will be strongest, given that storms are expected to remain quite isolated. A muggy airmass will be in place resulting in heat indices >100, though a heat advisory will not be issued as thunderstorm coverage and anvil debris should keep the area below the 108 threshold. However, temperatures will still be quite hot across the area so make sure to drink plenty of water, wear light clothing, and limit time outside in the sun. High temperatures areawide will reach the low to mid 90s with overnight lows in the upper 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 336 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Upper level ridging will hold through the period, before beginning to flatten late Friday into Saturday morning. This is due to a shortwave trough developing in the upper midwest and then tracking through the Great Lakes. Until then, expect hot days, with highs in the low to mid 90s and heat indicies around 103-110 in SE AL and SW GA and 105-113 in FL. Heat Advisories look possible, especially with the warmer airmass in place. The question keeps these at bay is the scattered to possible widespread nature of showers and thunderstorms. Even if advisories are not in place, heat illness and exhaustion can happen fast. Make sure you`re ready to beat the heat by visiting weather.gov/heat. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 336 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 A frontal boundary should pass or stall just to our north over the weekend, which combined with our moist airmass and the seabreeze could lead to scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rain and gusty winds look to be the primary threats with any storms that form. Upper level ridging over the Atlantic looks to extend into the southeast for the beginning of the week. Flow should be south to southeasterly, supporting land and seabreeze convection. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 650 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Visibilities near KTLH have begun to drop along with ceilings with KTLH expected to follow soon. KDHN, KVLD, and KABY have also seen ceilings reduced, thus nothing has changed from the 06z TAF`s. VFR will resume around 13-14z with VCTS beginning at all sites around 18z. && .MARINE... Issued at 336 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Generally south to southwest winds are expected through much of the week, and seas should be around 1 to 2 feet as a result. Scattered showers and storms are expected through today and tomorrow, with activity generally greatest during the overnight and early morning hours as the diurnal land breeze circulation is at its peak. Long period swell from Hurricane Beryl will arrive && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 336 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 The wet pattern will continue as a moist and unstable airmass remains overhead with RH values generally remaining above 50% areawide over the next few days. Fire weather concerns remain low at this time other than low dispersions across the FL Big Bend and easternmost portions of our SW GA counties. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 336 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 A very warm and moist airmass is forecast to remain over the area through the upcoming week. Scattered to sometimes widespread showers and storms are expected daily, and locally heavy rainfall will remain possible throughout the period. Widespread flooding is not expected, but several instances of nuisance flooding will be possible across the area. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 92 76 94 76 / 70 30 60 20 Panama City 90 77 90 79 / 60 20 40 10 Dothan 93 75 93 76 / 50 20 50 10 Albany 92 75 92 76 / 60 20 50 10 Valdosta 92 75 94 76 / 60 30 50 20 Cross City 93 75 94 75 / 70 40 60 20 Apalachicola 88 79 89 79 / 60 20 40 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Worster SHORT TERM...KR LONG TERM....KR AVIATION...Worster MARINE...KR FIRE WEATHER...Worster HYDROLOGY...Merrifield