Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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784 FXUS62 KTAE 031935 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 335 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Through Thursday) Issued at 316 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Upper level ridge remains entrenched across the deep south and with it weak mid-level flow out of the north and northeast. With low-level flow being weak as well, and the diffuse boundary from this afternoon mostly gone by tomorrow, expect most thunderstorm activity to be driven by the seabreeze, and any airmass storms that form with sufficient heating of the day across our inland zones. With the ridge still in place, we`ll see a slower start to storms again on Thursday like we saw today, but the main uncertainty forecast wise will be how warm we get before storms fire off. This afternoon, extensive low level cumulus prevented many locations from reaching heat advisory levels except in isolated areas. For tomorrow, guidance is running a degree or two warmer but a similar trend in convection is expected so whether we hit heat advisory criteria tomorrow is a little more difficult to ascertain but probabilities for reaching heat advisory levels do appear higher. && .SHORT AND LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 316 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Deep layer ridging is forecast to set up overhead and remain pretty much in place throughout the next week or so. This will allow temperatures to rise again into the mid to upper 90s with heat indices in the 105-113 degree range in the afternoons. Several days of heat advisories appear likely, particularly along and south of the I-10 corridor. Low temperatures are forecast to remain in the mid to upper 70s, which will not allow for much respite at all from the daytime heat. Accumulation of many abnormally hot days and nights will increase our overall susceptibility to heat illness and exhaustion. Please take heat safety precautions seriously. Despite the ridging, ample moisture overhead will still allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms each day, with the best chances along the diurnal sea/land breeze circulation. A weak front is forecast to approach the area on Saturday and could provide an additional focus mechanism for showers and thunderstorms Saturday into Sunday. Severe weather appears less likely at this point, but some storms could produce gusty winds. The primary threat with these storms seems to be locally heavy rainfall with some isolated spots of flooding possible. Long-period swell from Hurricane Beryl is forecast to arrive Friday and last into the weekend. This swell will likely cause extremely dangerous rip currents and cause erosion along area beaches. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 149 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of the afternoon with the only restrictions being occasional periods of MVFR/IFR in thunderstorm activity that moves over area TAF sites. Storms will generally be most prevalent from 18z-00z. After 00z with conditions clearing, only aviation concerns through the overnight hours could be IFR/LIFR ceilings developing across inland sites at DHN/ABY, and patchy fog is possible at TLH/VLD/ECP overnight, though confidence was not great enough to put in some TAFs. These conditions, if they develop, should lift by 14/15z Thursday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 316 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Generally south to southwest winds are expected through much of the week with seas around 1 to 3 feet. Scattered showers and storms are expected through today and tomorrow, with activity generally greatest during the overnight and early morning hours as the diurnal land breeze circulation is at its peak. Long period swell from Hurricane Beryl will arrive Friday and gradually subside over the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 316 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Moist conditions and high rain chances should continue to keep most fire weather concerns low into the weekend. Conditions will dry out some as rain chances drop slightly into the weekend, but scattered showers and storms are possible each afternoon. Only fire concerns in the immediate term will be the potential for low dispersions on Independence Day given weak low/mid-level flow. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 316 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 A very warm and moist airmass is forecast to remain over the area through the upcoming week. Scattered to sometimes widespread showers and storms are expected daily, and locally heavy rainfall will remain possible throughout the period. Widespread flooding is not expected, but several instances of nuisance flooding will be possible across the area. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 76 94 77 95 / 30 50 10 50 Panama City 78 91 79 91 / 20 30 10 40 Dothan 75 94 76 94 / 30 40 10 50 Albany 76 94 76 94 / 30 60 10 50 Valdosta 75 95 76 94 / 40 60 10 50 Cross City 75 94 75 94 / 30 60 20 50 Apalachicola 79 90 79 90 / 10 30 10 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134. GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ120>131-142>148- 155>161. AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ065>069. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Dobbs SHORT TERM...Merrifield LONG TERM....Merrifield AVIATION...Dobbs MARINE...Merrifield FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs HYDROLOGY...Merrifield