Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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040 FXUS62 KTAE 042329 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 729 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Through Friday) Issued at 303 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Hot and humid conditions are expected to continue through Friday with scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms across the area throughout the late morning and afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be possible with any storms that develop. Weak steering flow along with high rainfall rates may together create a few spots of flood advisory or flash flood level flooding, particularly over urban areas. However, widespread flooding is not anticipated. Due in part to the ridging overhead, high temperatures are mostly forecast in the mid to upper 90s inland and the low 90s near the coast. Max heat indices are forecast to climb into the 106-112 degree range during the afternoon, and a heat advisory has been issued area-wide for Friday. While the explicit criteria (108F) may be a bit borderline in some areas, the prolonged nature of this heat wave along with increased vulnerability due to the holiday weekend leads us to go ahead with the advisory at this point. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday night through Saturday night) Issued at 303 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Any showers and storms from Friday afternoon should be in their waning stages to start the Short Term period. That will lead to a mild night with lows in the middle to upper 70s with a few areas of fog possible by dawn Saturday. A weakening cold front nears the region Saturday afternoon and will keep storm chances in the forecast Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Temperatures climb into the lower to middle 90s Saturday afternoon before dropping into the middle to upper 70s Saturday night. An H5 ridge overhead will weaken slightly as a trough swings through the Great Lakes over the weekend. This trough will send a cold front into the Southeast Saturday and may lead to more widespread showers and thunderstorms along it; the best opportunity for that is currently expected to be across our Alabama and Georgia Counties. Any storms that develop will be capable of producing gusty winds and locally heavy rain. Outside of the rain, temperatures will once again climb into the lower to middle 90s with heat indices approaching Heat Advisory criteria, or 108 degrees or higher. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 303 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Saturday`s cold front will be in the process of stalling across the region on Sunday and will be the focal point for additional showers and storms. Ample moisture combined with daytime heating will lead to additional shower and storm potential each afternoon as the H5 ridge hangs out overhead. Temperatures during the day will generally run in the lower to middle 90s with overnight lows in the middle 70s. Heat indices each afternoon will continue to run near Heat Advisory criteria, or 108 degrees or higher. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 725 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 A few isolated TSRA have developed this afternoon. These have been generally short lived and fall apart about 15-30 minutes after developing. Otherwise, VFR conditions continue through the next 24 hours. Can`t rule out patchy fog or low stratus overnight, but confidence isn`t high enough to make wholesale categorical changes. If it does develop, the IFR cigs and/or MVFR vsbys are possible, slowly mixing out to MVFR/VFR cigs late in the morning. During the afternoon, scattered afternoon TSRA is expected across the area. && .MARINE... Issued at 303 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Isolated showers, even a few thunderstorms, are possible the next couple of nights into the morning hours. Winds will generally be out of the south to southwest with a slight uptick in winds anticipated early next week. Hurricane Beryl will bring a long period swell that arrives Friday and continue through the weekend before subsiding early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 303 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 A very warm and moist air mass is expected to remain over the area through the weekend and into early next week. Daily showers and thunderstorms are expected with locally heavy rainfall and gusty, erratic winds possible. Otherwise, there are no fire weather concerns. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 303 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast each day. Widespread flooding is not anticipated over the next several days. However, scattered showers and storms remain possible the next several days. Any one of these thunderstorms has the potential to drop a couple inches of rain in a short amount of time. Nuisance flooding is the main concern for areas that see the heavy rain, especially in urban and/or poor drainage areas along with those that have seen the heavy rain the past few days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 94 77 95 77 / 60 20 60 20 Panama City 91 80 91 79 / 40 20 40 30 Dothan 94 77 95 76 / 50 30 60 40 Albany 94 77 95 76 / 60 20 50 30 Valdosta 93 77 94 77 / 60 30 60 20 Cross City 94 76 93 76 / 60 30 60 20 Apalachicola 90 80 90 80 / 40 10 30 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134. Heat Advisory from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ to 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ Friday for FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127- 128-134. GA...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for GAZ120>131-142>148- 155>161. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM EDT Friday for GAZ120>131- 142>148-155>161. AL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ALZ065>069. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for ALZ065>069. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Merrifield SHORT TERM...Reese LONG TERM....Reese AVIATION...Young MARINE...Reese FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield HYDROLOGY...Reese