Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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632 FXUS62 KTAE 051417 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1017 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1014 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 A few minor tweaks were made to account for the latest trends based on obs this morning. Otherwise, the forecast is largely on track. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Ridging overhead with a hot and moist unstable airmass at the surface will remain in place for the near term. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will once again be possible areawide with the seabreeze propagating inland with general airmass thunderstorms for our AL and GA counties. Some rainfall rates may be heavy, and coupled with weak steering flow aloft, could create some localized nuisance flooding. This afternoon will also feature another heat advisory for the entire CWA as heat indices ranging from 108-111 are possible, particularly for our FL and SE AL counties. Some of our GA counties are borderline (around 107), though this has been a prolonged period of heat and with it being a holiday weekend, opted to be cautious. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 A summer pattern will continue across the area with an upper level ridge dominating. Convection will be driven by mesoscale boundaries such as the sea breeze and weak upper level vort maxes. Normally, with an upper ridge in place, convective chances would be below average. However, a very moist airmass is also in place with precipitable water values well above 2 inches and above the 90th percentile even for this time of year. This very moist airmass is expected to offset the ridging and allow for at least average to above average rain chances through the weekend. In addition, a weak surface boundary may dip into the area this weekend, further enhancing rain chances across southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia. High temperatures will generally range from the low to mid 90s with overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s. Despite the increased rain chances, peak heat index values will still be quite high, particularly on Saturday, thanks to high dewpoints across the area. Additional heat advisories are possible through the weekend with the hottest conditions across the Florida counties. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Not much change in the pattern is expected through mid-week with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms and precipitable water values around 2 inches or higher. Temperatures during the day will generally run in the lower to middle 90s with overnight lows in the middle 70s. Heat indices each afternoon will continue to run near Heat Advisory criteria, or 108 degrees or higher. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 634 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 VFR conditions should persist at all sites through the morning with the exception of KVLD which is currently seeing MVFR ceilings and visibilities. This is expected to improve by 13-14z. All sites will remain VFR through 17-18z before VCTS will likely occur, improving by 0z. && .MARINE... Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible, mainly during the overnight and morning hours. Winds will generally be out of the south to southwest with a slight uptick in winds anticipated early next week. Hurricane Beryl will bring a long period swell that will arrive this evening and continue through the weekend before subsiding early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 A moist airmass will remain over the area with thunderstorms expected each day with gusty and erratic winds within and near these storms. The only main concern at this time is low dispersions possible across SW GA and the FL Big Bend today. Otherwise, there are no fire concerns at this time. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected for at least the next few days with a moist summer environment in place. While widespread heavy rainfall is not currently expected, localized pockets of heavy rain in a short period of time could produced localized flash flooding, especially in urban and/or poor drainage areas and in areas that have already seen heavy rain during the past few days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 94 77 95 77 / 60 40 70 30 Panama City 91 79 91 79 / 50 30 70 30 Dothan 95 76 94 76 / 60 50 70 30 Albany 95 76 94 76 / 60 40 70 30 Valdosta 94 76 95 76 / 60 40 70 30 Cross City 94 76 94 76 / 60 30 70 30 Apalachicola 91 80 89 80 / 40 20 60 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134. High Rip Current Risk from 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening through late Sunday night for FLZ108-112-114-115. GA...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for GAZ120>131-142>148- 155>161. AL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ALZ065>069. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Worster SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM....DVD AVIATION...Worster MARINE...DVD FIRE WEATHER...Worster HYDROLOGY...DVD