468
FXUS62 KTAE 061716
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
116 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 946 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

The previous forecast appears to be on track, and no major changes
were made.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 245 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

A very moist airmass remains in place across the region with
precipitable water values above 2 inches. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon
along leftover mesoscale surface boundaries and the sea breeze. Weak
steering flow coupled with the tropical environment will lead to
pockets of locally heavy rain with isolated flash flooding possible.
Convection will gradually diminish after sunset but may linger a few
hours into the night. Another hot afternoon is expected with peak
heat index values generally between 106-112. Thus, a heat advisory
remains in effect.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 245 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

A moist airmass will remain in place through the short
term portion of the forecast resulting in garden variety afternoon
thunderstorms during the afternoon hours Sunday and Monday. Despite
troughing over the Great Lakes, upper ridging will persist which
will serve to keep our temperatures quite high for the time being.
Heat indices will approach 108 Sunday afternoon, with the issuance
of a heat advisory in later forecast cycles appearing likely.
However, mid-level moisture content increases on Monday resulting in
increasing cloud cover. This should keep us slightly cooler and
perhaps away from any heat advisory level temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 245 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Ridging remains through the long term forecast with
elevated chances for showers and thunderstorms each evening.
Additionally, the moist airmass remains in place with PWATs > 2"
across the majority of the CWA, indicative of some heavier rainfall
rates with our afternoon garden variety thunderstorms. PoPs could
drop somewhat as a tropical upper tropospheric trough begins to push
west from the Atlantic side, though this would likely be short lived
as precipitation chances would increase as it clears the area. High
temperatures will also persist through the long term forecast with
heat advisories possible as long as the dewpoints remain elevated
across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 114 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected
across the area this afternoon and evening. Gusty erratic winds
along with lowering ceilings and visibility will be possible with
any convection. A few spots of patchy fog and/or MVFR ceilings are
possible in the morning, but confidence is too low to include for
now. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible through the
next few days, generally in the overnight and morning hours.
Variable calm winds will prevail through Monday before seeing a
slight uptick as they become southerly. As Hurricane Beryl treks
across the Gulf to our south, long period swells will move into the
area which will subside early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Fire weather concerns are expected to remain minimal with a moist
airmass in place and a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Heat index values will be high each afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected into next week
thanks to a moist summer environment in place. While widespread
heavy rainfall is not currently expected, localized pockets of heavy
rain in a short period of time could produced localized flash
flooding, especially in urban and/or poor drainage areas and in
areas that have already seen heavy rain during the past few days. No
riverine flooding is anticipated the next 7 to 10 days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   77  94  76  93 /  40  70  30  70
Panama City   79  91  78  91 /  30  60  30  70
Dothan        76  94  74  94 /  40  70  30  70
Albany        77  93  75  92 /  50  70  40  70
Valdosta      77  94  76  94 /  50  70  30  70
Cross City    76  94  76  92 /  30  70  30  70
Apalachicola  80  89  80  89 /  20  50  30  70

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ120>131-142>148-
     155>161.

AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ065>069.

GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Worster
LONG TERM....Worster
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...Worster
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Reese