826
FXUS65 KSLC 030932
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
332 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and gusty conditions will result in locally critical
fire weather conditions, particularly for portions of southern
and eastern Utah Wednesday and Thursday. Increased ridging through
the Great Basin then results in continued dry conditions and a
warming trend from the weekend into next week, with heat
potentially rising to hazardous levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY)...A mean trough remains in place
across the northwestern CONUS this morning. The next embedded
shortwave disturbance is noted over the PacNW currently, and will
graze northern Utah this afternoon. This will push another dry cold
front into the area, maintaining temperatures near to slightly below
climatological normals across the area. Locally breezy conditions can
be expected behind the front, especially in favored downslope areas.
These winds will combine with low humidities to result in critical
fire weather conditions where fuels are dry across portions of south-
central and east-central Utah.

The dry northwest flow will persist tomorrow, albeit slightly
weaker. Other than having localized critical fire weather conditions
persist, relatively benign weather can be expected through the day
tomorrow.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Friday)...There is little mistaking the
forecast in this long term period - it`s gonna be hot. Utah will sit
on the eastern periphery of a ridge of high pressure throughout this
forecast period, completely agreed up by all cluster ensemble
members. The only questioning will be toward next week if the ridge
meanders ever so slightly eastward to center itself more overhead or
continue to sit to the west. It would make a slight difference in
the temperatures but we are nit picking. With heat as the primary
impact in this long term period, there will be potential for heat
related headlines, particularly in southern Utah/Zion NP areas where
temperatures will have to be closely monitored Saturday through
Wednesday. Temperatures remain forecast over 110 degrees at St.
George and lower Washington County every one of these days.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Light winds and VFR conditions are expected to
prevail at the terminal. Winds are forecast to shift northwest later
this morning with a southeast wind shift at its typical time around
03z this evening.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions are expected to
prevail under weak high pressure today. Light winds will generally
prevail but occasional gusts will be noted this afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...The next storm system grazing northern Utah this
afternoon will send another dry cold front into the forecast area
today. This front will bring breezy northwest winds to favored
downslope areas. The winds will combine with low relative humidities
to result in critical fire weather conditions where fuels have cured
across south-central and east-central Utah today. Enhanced
northwesterly flow will continue through Thursday, with areas of
critical fire weather conditions persisting especially across east-
central Utah. Otherwise, expect near seasonal temperatures to be
maintained through late week. Over the weekend and through the the
first half of next week, temperatures will trend hotter while
maintaining mostly dry conditions. Another round of critical fire
weather conditions will be possible this weekend.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT Thursday for UTZ489.

     Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
     UTZ498.

WY...None.
&&

$$

Cheng/NDeSmet

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