842
FXUS64 KSJT 040511
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1211 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Hot temperatures continue into Independence Day. Temperatures may
drop a degree or two for the 4th, but dew points and heat indices
increase back up near to the heat advisory 105 degrees across
portions of the Big Country and Concho Valley. Heat advisories may
be issued for Thursday afternoon/evening...later this evening or
overnight. Gusty south winds are again expected for Thursday,
though wind speeds will be a couple mph lower.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

A much needed pattern change is expected starting Friday as a trough
moves across the north central United States. A cold front will push
south into the area starting early Friday, bringing cooler
temperatures and rain chances. High temperatures on Friday could be
as low as the upper 80s in the Big Country and mid to upper 90s
elsewhere. The front, along with a few upper level disturbances,
could produce scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday into
Sunday. Precipitation amounts look to stay generally below half an
inch for Friday and the weekend, but we could see higher amounts
under isolated thunderstorms.

There is still a lot of uncertainty when it comes to the rest of the
long term for both precipitation and temperatures. As of this
afternoon, Hurricane Beryl is forecast to make landfall in Mexico,
just south of Texas. However, it is still in the realm of
possibilities that Beryl could turn further north into Texas. The
exact path of Hurricane Beryl will have a significant effect on
rainfall amounts, so we will be keeping a close eye on that. The
good news is, it looks like we`ll have a slight chance of rain for
next week even if Beryl takes the southern track rather than the
more northern one. Northwest flow aloft is expected to set up over
the area for the start of next week, allowing for upper-level
disturbances to move over the area, leading to low-end rain
chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. South winds
will increase to 10 to 12 knots, with higher gusts, by mid
morning. Expect a gradual decrease in winds by mid afternoon.
Winds this evening will become south to southeast and drop below
10 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene    104  79 102  76 /   0   0   0  20
San Angelo 105  76 104  77 /   0   0   0  10
Junction   100  74 100  75 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood  100  76 100  76 /   0   0   0  10
Sweetwater 104  78 103  75 /   0   0  10  30
Ozona       99  74  99  74 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       98  74  99  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for Coke-Fisher-Haskell-
Irion-Jones-Nolan-Runnels-Shackelford-Sterling-Taylor-
Throckmorton-Tom Green.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...Daniels