407
FXUS64 KSJT 040725
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
225 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 224 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

The main story today will be the continued hot temperatures across
West Central Texas. An upper level ridge centered across the
Southeast U.S. will continue to result in temperatures well above
seasonal normals. A Heat Advisory is in effect until 7 PM for much
of the Concho Valley and Big Country, where highs near 105 are
forecast. Elsewhere, expect highs in the upper 90s to near 103.

An upper level trough is forecast to swing across the Central and
Northern Plains today, sending a cold front into the northern Big
Country this evening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
possible along the front, so have included slight chance PoPs this
evening mainly across our northern counties. Additional showers and
thunderstorms are possible across the Trans-Pecos region and
Southeast New Mexico this evening, along the western periphery of
the ridge. Most of this activity should remain to our west, but
cannot rule out a few storms sneaking into our far western counties.
Isolated to scattered showers are also possible after midnight,
mainly across the Big Country, as the aforementioned cold front
slowly moves south. Expect overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

A much needed pattern change is expected starting Friday as a trough
moves across the north central United States. A cold front will push
south into the area starting early Friday, bringing cooler
temperatures and rain chances. High temperatures on Friday could be
as low as the upper 80s in the Big Country and mid to upper 90s
elsewhere. The front, along with a few upper level disturbances,
could produce scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday into
Sunday. Precipitation amounts look to stay generally below half an
inch for Friday and the weekend, but we could see higher amounts
under isolated thunderstorms.

There is still a lot of uncertainty when it comes to the rest of the
long term for both precipitation and temperatures. As of this
afternoon, Hurricane Beryl is forecast to make landfall in Mexico,
just south of Texas. However, it is still in the realm of
possibilities that Beryl could turn further north into Texas. The
exact path of Hurricane Beryl will have a significant effect on
rainfall amounts, so we will be keeping a close eye on that. The
good news is, it looks like we`ll have a slight chance of rain for
next week even if Beryl takes the southern track rather than the
more northern one. Northwest flow aloft is expected to set up over
the area for the start of next week, allowing for upper-level
disturbances to move over the area, leading to low-end rain
chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. South winds
will increase to 10 to 12 knots, with higher gusts, by mid
morning. Expect a gradual decrease in winds by mid afternoon.
Winds this evening will become south to southeast and drop below
10 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene    102  76  90  72 /   0  20  50  30
San Angelo 104  77  98  75 /   0  10  50  30
Junction   100  74  99  73 /   0   0  30  20
Brownwood  101  76  94  72 /   0  10  50  30
Sweetwater 103  76  90  71 /  10  20  50  20
Ozona       99  74  97  73 /   0   0  30  30
Brady       99  75  95  72 /   0   0  40  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Coke-Fisher-
Haskell-Irion-Jones-Nolan-Runnels-Shackelford-Sterling-Taylor-
Throckmorton-Tom Green.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Daniels
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...Daniels