496
FXUS64 KSJT 060554
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1254 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Early this afternoon, a cold front is located across central
portions of the area, from northern Tom Green county to Brown
County. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
occurring across the Big Country, behind the front, with
additional storms beginning to develop in the vicinity of the
front. Expect an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity
through the afternoon hours near the front, mainly across our
central counties. This activity should slowly shift south this
evening, before dissipating by mid to late evening near the I-10
corridor. The main concerns with these storms will be locally
heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning, although strong gusty
winds are also possible. Expect an overall decrease in activity
late this evening into the early morning hours Saturday. Overnight
lows will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

On Saturday, the aforementioned weak cold front will be stalled
somewhere across our southern counties. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are again possible, mainly during the
afternoon, with the most of the activity confined to the southern
half of the area. Highs on Saturday will be in the low to mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Rain chances will decrease late Saturday before making a return late
Sunday into Monday as a potential upper level shortwave and weak
front move near the area. Rain chances look better to our north for
this system, but our area (mainly the northern counties) could see
some rain Sunday into Monday.

Now for the updated information on Beryl...The current NHC forecast
has Beryl making landfall early Monday just to the south of Corpus
Christi. Recent model trends are taking the remnants of Beryl on a
more northeast track compared to previous runs, keeping most of the
rainfall to the east of our forecast area. PoPs have been decreased
from the last forecast package to align with the new forecast track
and the lower rainfall potential. With this shift in the track, we
also see a shift to warmer temperatures. Without the rain and
extensive cloud cover from Beryl and the increased subsidence on its
western side, temperatures will likely be warmer than with the
previous, more western, track. However, northerly winds on the
western side of the low will help keep temperatures a little lower
for Tuesday and Wednesday than they otherwise would be, before
winds switch back to the south. There is still a chance that Beryl
could bring rain to our area, but it looks less likely with every
model run.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. The main concern will
be the possibility of afternoon convection, primarily across the
far southern terminals. Based on latest model guidance, will
maintain PROB30 groups for KJCT, KBBD and KSOA after 20Z where
highest confidence exists. Otherwise, expect dry conditions, with
light winds the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     90  72  98  70 /  30   0   0  30
San Angelo  93  73 101  74 /  40  10   0  10
Junction    93  73  97  72 /  50  10  10   0
Brownwood   90  72  96  71 /  40   0  10  10
Sweetwater  91  73 100  70 /  30   0  10  30
Ozona       92  72  97  73 /  40   0   0   0
Brady       89  72  94  72 /  50  10   0  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Daniels
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...24