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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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122 FXUS64 KSJT 070956 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 456 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Isolated to scattered slow-moving showers and thunderstorms are occurring this afternoon over the southern half of our area. The airmass is moderately unstable and moist (precipitable water values between 1.6 and 1.9 inches). The main storm hazards are lightning, gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Given the weak steering flow and slow movement with the convection, heavy rain could cause ponding of water on roads and result in minor flooding of poor drainage areas. The showers and storms will dissipate this evening, and skies will be mostly clear tonight. Per the boundary layer moisture fields, patchy low cloud development early Sunday morning is anticipated over some of our southern counties (primarily Sutton and Kimble). Overnight lows will be mostly in the lower 70s, with a few mid 70s possible in the Big Country. Our area will be under rather weak northwest flow aloft tonight and Sunday. A strong upper level ridge will be over the west coast, and an upper level trough will be centered over mainly the northern and central Plains. Wind speeds will be higher on Sunday with increased surface pressure gradient across our area. South or south-southwest winds in the morning with slight backing to the south-southeast in the afternoon. With mostly sunny skies and 850mb thermal ridge expanding east into our area, temperatures will be hotter on Sunday. Highs are expected to be 100-103 degrees in much of the Concho Valley and Big Country, and in the mid to upper 90s elsewhere. Expect any rain chances to be north of our area prior to 7 PM Sunday. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 450 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Precipitation chances will continue Monday into Tuesday as another cold front moves into the area from the north. The front, along with a shortwave trough clipping the area will allow for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop. Will maintain low POPs during this time frame. The remnants of Tropical Storm Beryl and its moisture will stay to our east as it lifts north across east Texas and the Arklatex region on Tuesday, so not expecting any effects from it. The NBM has continued to trend precipitation chances down Wednesday into Thursday, although cannot rule out a few showers and storms developing across southerm sections during the afternoon hours. Dry conditions are expected Friday into next weekend. Temperatures across the area will be cooler for Monday and Tuesday after the passage of the cold front, with highs ranging from the mid 80s to mid 90s. Temperatures are then expected to climb back into the 90s and triple digits by the end of the week and into next weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1257 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will generally be out of the south overnight and in the morning before becoming turning out of the east-southeast in the afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 98 70 88 68 / 10 20 30 20 San Angelo 101 71 94 70 / 0 10 10 20 Junction 96 72 93 70 / 0 0 10 10 Brownwood 96 71 89 69 / 0 10 30 20 Sweetwater 100 70 88 69 / 0 20 30 20 Ozona 97 72 94 70 / 0 0 10 20 Brady 93 71 89 69 / 0 0 20 20 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...19 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...42