422
FXUS64 KSJT 072007
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
307 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

An upper level ridge will remain over the western CONUS. Tropical
Storm Beryl is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to make
landfall on the middle Texas coast early Monday morning, and then
move north and weaken to a tropical storm by 7 PM Monday. With this
setup, most of our area will be under north to northwest flow aloft
tonight and Monday. This evening, an embedded disturbance in the
northwest flow aloft is forecast to move into northwest Texas, and
help to initiate showers and thunderstorms. Isolated to scattered
showers and storms should move or develop south/southeast into the
Big Country later this evening into tonight. Not seeing much of an
indication for the showers and storms to persist overnight however,
with the aforementioned disturbance weakening. Trailing portion of a
cold front (associated with an upper trough gradually shifting east
across the northern and central Plains) will push south across our
area late tonight into the day Monday. Our area will have increased
cloud cover overnight and Monday morning, but skies should become
partly cloudy especially over our western counties in the afternoon.
Temperatures will be a little cooler in our southern counties, but
most noticeably cooler in the Big Country. Highs on Monday are
expected to range from the mid to upper 80s in the Big Country, to
the lower/mid 90s in the Northern Edwards Plateau.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

The forecast continues to call for increased shower and
thunderstorm chances Monday night into Tuesday, as a surface cold
front coinciding with a upper-level shortwave trough tracks
through West Central Texas. Models are keying in on these storms
possibly organizing into an MCS (Mesoscale Convective System)
late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. The high-res models
are showing this feature developing during the overnight hours
Monday night into early Tuesday morning, south of a Sterling City
to Brady line, and tracking south to southwestward through
Tuesday evening. The remnants of Tropical Storm Beryl and its
moisture will stay to our east as it lifts north across east Texas
and the Arklatex region on Tuesday, so not expecting any effects
from it. The NBM has continued to trend precipitation chances down
Wednesday into Thursday, although cannot rule out a few showers
and storms developing across southern sections during the
afternoon hours. Dry conditions are expected Friday into next
weekend.

Temperatures across the area will be cooler for Tuesday behind the
front and with increased cloud cover and precipitation chances,
with highs ranging from the upper 80s to mid 90s. Temperatures
are then expected to trend back upward into the 90s and triple
digits by the end of the week and into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Skies will be generally clear over the area this afternoon and
early evening. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to move or develop into the Big Country from the northwest and
north this evening into tonight. Generally southeast winds this
afternoon will become east tonight. Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms will be possible on Monday, in our northern
counties in the morning, and across our northern and central
counties in the afternoon. Winds will become north-northeast
Monday with passage of a cold front. Low cloud development (with
MVFR ceilings) is expected in the early to mid-morning hours
Monday, over our northern and eastern counties. Cloud ceilings
will climb over 3000ft in the 15Z-17Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     70  87  70  91 /  20  30  10  10
San Angelo  71  92  71  94 /  10  20  30  30
Junction    71  92  71  92 /   0  10  30  30
Brownwood   70  88  69  90 /  10  30  10  10
Sweetwater  71  85  69  91 /  20  30  20  20
Ozona       72  95  70  91 /   0  10  30  30
Brady       71  90  71  90 /   0  20  20  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...19