939
FXUS64 KSJT 081934
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
234 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

A complex of storms that developed in the Permian Basin earlier
this morning, was moving southeast through Western Crockett
country this afternoon. there were also a few showers in eastern
Brown and San Saba Counties, in association with tropical storm
Beryle in East Texas.

These storms will weaken and end with loss of daytime heating. A
few storms, however, may redevelop later tonight....mainly west of
a San Angelo to Sonora line, and again Tuesday along a south of a
Big Lake to San Angelo to Junction line...as some weak
disturbances move through northwest flow aloft. Drier air,
otherwise, will move in behind the cold front, limiting rainfall
chances to the north. Temperatures rebound back to highs in the
lower to mid 90s Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Our area will be under weak north-northwest flow aloft Wednesday,
and may have a weak, embedded disturbance entering the area (mainly
over the western half). At this point, carrying slight chance PoPs
for showers and thunderstorms in our southern counties, and may need
to expanded these PoPs depending on how models trend the setup for
Wednesday.

For late this week through the weekend, seasonably hot conditions
are expected for our area. A strong upper level high is forecast to
be centered over Utah Friday, the Utah/Colorado border Saturday, and
over Colorado on Sunday. With the distance from the upper high and
relative weakness in the heights aloft over our area, cannot rule
out the possibility for an isolated couple of showers/storms in the
afternoon hours each day Thursday into the weekend. With low
confidence in occurrence and placement of any convection, PoPs are
less than 15 percent for our area. Afternoon highs will be in the
upper 90s/around 100 degrees in the Big Country and Concho Valley,
and in the mid to upper 90s across the rest of our area. Morning
lows will be mostly in the lower 70s Thursday and Friday, and lower
to mid 70s Saturday and Sunday.

The global models have some differences early next week with the
positioning of the upper level ridge, but not expecting much change
in our weather. Proximity of the ridge and strength of the 850mb
thermal ridge will determine how hot it gets in our area. At this
point, have temperatures creeping up early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Scattered MVFR ceiling will become VFR around 18Z today. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon will be too sparse to
included in terminals. Northeast winds may gust to 18 KTS this
afternoon behind a cold front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     69  93  70  95 /  10   0   0   0
San Angelo  72  96  71  98 /  20  10  10  10
Junction    71  94  70  96 /  10  20  10  20
Brownwood   68  93  68  96 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  69  93  70  96 /  10  10   0  10
Ozona       72  91  71  94 /  20  30  10  20
Brady       70  93  71  95 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...04