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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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131 FXUS64 KSJT 192334 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 634 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 201 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Calm and quiet weather will persist through Saturday morning, when the next chances for precipitation arise across parts of West Central Texas. Precipitation chances will begin across the Big Country late Saturday morning, spread southward into the Concho Valley by the afternoon, and then encompassing parts of the Heartland by Saturday night into early Sunday morning. These isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to remain mostly sub-severe throughout the period, with the main impacts being localized heavy rainfall, dangerous lightning, and some localized gusty winds. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Friday) Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 A broad trough will be across the Plains and the eastern U.S. on Sunday. At the same time, a ridge will sit across the southwestern U.S. This will leave us largely pinned between the two if not on the western edge of the trough. A cold frontal boundary will linger across west Central Texas during this same time period. As a result, this should serve as a focal point for rainfall on Sunday and Monday. The trough aloft should aid in the develop and help maintain the thunderstorms. As ample moisture will remain across the region, we will need to watch out for the possibility of excessive rainfall to occur. The Weather Prediction Center has outlooked our area for excessive rainfall on Sunday (Marginal Risk) and Monday (Slight Risk). The higher likelihood for flooding will be across the I-10 corridor, which is where the highest rainfall totals are forecast to be. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 630 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours, with light east to southeast winds 10 kts or less through the period. Scattered convection is expected to develop across northwest Texas after 18Z tomorrow, with some of this activity approaching the KABI terminal by late afternoon. For now, will add VCTS to the KABI terminal after 22Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 73 97 73 92 / 0 20 20 50 San Angelo 73 100 73 94 / 0 20 10 60 Junction 71 96 72 94 / 0 10 0 50 Brownwood 69 96 72 91 / 0 10 10 50 Sweetwater 74 98 74 92 / 0 30 20 50 Ozona 71 96 72 92 / 0 10 0 50 Brady 70 95 72 91 / 0 10 0 50 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TP LONG TERM....41 AVIATION...24