209
FXUS64 KSJT 201701
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1201 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Early this morning skies were mostly clear with mild temperatures in
the mid 70s.  A somewhat humid airmass was in place, characterized
by dewpoints in the 60s.

A broad upper level trough located over the Midwest and sprawling
southwestward through the southern Plains will be the main driver of
the the weather today through tonight.  High temperatures this
afternoon should climb to the upper 90s and, with dewpoints in the
low 60s, should allow instability values of 1500-2000 J/kg to
develop. Models show an upper level impulse, possibly an MCV from
yesterday evening`s thunderstorms, rotating through the upper
trough and into the Big Country this afternoon. This, along with
the instability, should help to spawn a southward-moving line of
thunderstorms around the I-20 corridor this afternoon. The main
concerns with this activity will be locally heavy rain, given PWAT
values of 1.5-2 inches, but some gusty winds are possible with
any storm that develops. Storms should die off by midnight as
instability subsides and give way to another mild night in the
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Numerous showers and thunderstorms expected Sunday into Monday as
an upper trough replaces upper ridging, and weak cold front moves
into the region and washes out. Localized flooding possible as
storms will be slow moving and precipital waters increase to the
1.5 to 2 inch range. Tuesday, the main focus for storm development
will shift south of the Big Country, and for the Wednesday into
Friday time period...along/southeast of a Sonora to Brownwood
line. Storms and clouds will keep temperatures down, particularly
Monday and Tuesdays, where highs are expected to be mainly in the
80s. Temperatures warm back into the 90s in the Big Country and
Concho Valley the rest of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

VFR conditions will remain in place throughout the TAF period.
Scattered thunderstorms will develop across the Concho valley
this afternoon and evening. The coverage will subsequently
increase overnight and into Sunday morning affecting areas further
south near the weak frontal boundary. Erratic winds in the
vicininty of this actvity are possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     72  92  70  82 /  20  50  40  60
San Angelo  74  93  70  85 /  20  60  50  90
Junction    73  94  70  89 /  10  50  20  80
Brownwood   72  92  70  85 /  20  40  40  70
Sweetwater  72  93  70  82 /  30  50  50  70
Ozona       72  91  70  84 /  10  50  40  80
Brady       72  92  70  85 /  10  40  30  80

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...SK