622
FXUS64 KSJT 170515
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1215 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Upper level ridging is currently keeping our area dry and largely
cloud free. Through the overnight hours, the ridge is expected to
rotate, becoming more longitudinal in nature, and drift west. As
this happens, a cold front, currently moving south through Central
Oklahoma and the northern portion of the Texas Panhandle, will
begin to approach our area. We`ll see an increase in high clouds
ahead of the front tonight, mainly for areas north of the I-10
corridor. Overnight lows will remain comparable to the past few
nights, generally in the mid 70s with continued southerly winds
keeping lower level moisture well in place. The front looks to
make it to our northern counties during the late overnight/early
morning hours, bringing more robust cloud cover with it. Through
the morning hours, current forecasts show the front making little
progress south through the Big Country. Diabatic and compressional
heating ahead of the front will create a weakly capped to
virtually uncapped environment by the afternoon hours with the
frontal boundary potentially providing a focus for convective
development. Frontal location will play a significant role in
where storms initiate with the current best guess around the I-20
corridor. However, hi-res models are notoriously too slow with
cold fronts so forecasts may need to be updated to account for a
potentially faster moving front in the next package. There are
also significant differences between the hi-res models on how
much activity actually develops so have capped PoPs at slight
chance for now. Even with the frontal boundary across northern
portions of the area, high temperatures areawide will remain in
the upper 90s to around 103 in the Concho Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Showers and thunderstorms possible beginning Wednesday night and
continuing through at least the middle of next week, as upper level
ridging is replaced by an upper trough. A weak cold front moving
into the region Wednesday night will also bring some low level lift
to the region. There is the potential to some locally heavy rainfall
and localized flooding, particularly beginning Saturday as
precipital water values increase from 1 to 1.5 inches to 1.5 to 2
inches...which would be beneficial to much of the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. The Hi-Res models are
indicating isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms mainly south
of I-20 during the late afternoon and evening hours Wednesday.
Conditions will be more favorable for convection due to better
instability and a wind shift/cool front moving through. However,
confidence is not high enough to add thunder to the TAFS at this
time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     73  93  71  93 /  20  40  10  20
San Angelo  74  96  71  96 /  10  60  20  40
Junction    73  95  71  93 /  10  60  20  50
Brownwood   73  93  69  93 /  10  50  10  20
Sweetwater  73  94  71  95 /  20  40  10  20
Ozona       72  93  71  93 /  10  50  20  30
Brady       73  93  70  92 /  10  60  20  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...21