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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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508 FXUS64 KSJT 180507 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1207 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 209 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Convection continues to develop along the outflow boundary draped across northeast and north central Texas this afternoon. Satellite and radar images indicate some showers starting to develop along the outflow boundary draped across the southern portions of the Big Country and northern portions of the Concho Valley and Heartland. NBM POPs for tonight and Thursday appear to be a little low so have adjusted them slightly higher based on the latest HRRR progging convection developing along the outflow boundary this afternoon and the latest NAM and GFS models progging convection developing overnight into Thurs morning as the outflow boundary moves further south. Rain chances will shift southward Thursday with convection likely across portions of the northern Edwards Plateau and the northwest Hill Country. SPC does have a marginal risk of severe weather across portions of the CWA today and tonight...mainly where the outflow boundary is currently at but the main threat is for damaging winds (likely microbursts) due to the hot temperatures across the CWA this afternoon. Temperatures will be near normal across most of west central Texas Thurs afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 155 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 The upper level ridge currently over the Four Corners region will continue to expand across the Western CONUS during the day on Friday. This will create a weak upper level troughing regime over the Midwest/Central Plains. With the frontal boundary south of our area on Friday (meaning little to no low level convergence), conditions should remain mostly dry. Temperatures will still be able to climb into low to mid 90s (upper 90s possible in the Concho Valley) which may erode any capping and allow for some diurnal activity during the afternoon and early evening hours. These storms would be weak overall as instability will be very limited across the area due to the relatively dry low/mid-levels. By Saturday, the aforementioned upper level troughing will begin to expand south/southwestward into the Southern Plains. A frontal boundary to our north is expected to provide a focus for convection as it continues to move south towards our area Saturday evening into early Sunday. Rain chances increase significantly by Sunday as we see the return of more deep level moisture with model soundings showing PWat values climbing over 1.5 inches across the area. With the weak upper trough holding across in the area and the front expected to stall out in our general vicinity, chances for showers and storms remain decently high through Wednesday (peaking around 50- 70% areawide). Due to the nebulous forcing across the area, how widespread all of this activity remains difficult to say. The moisture will certainly be available but changes in the troughing pattern and/or placement in the frontal/outflow boundary may create significant differences in who sees high totals and who "misses out". Have had to broadbrush QPF amounts but confidence is low that all areas will see totals that high (generally 1-2 inches) with the higher totals expected across our southern/southeastern counties. At the very least, cooler temperatures will prevail with highs during this timeframe below average in the mid 80s to lower 90s. This wetter and cooler pattern looks to hold through the end of the work week with our more typical summer pattern potentially making its comeback by next weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 A cold front was located along the I-10 corridor. Most of the Hi- Res models are indicating isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms developing along and behind the front during the Thursday morning hours. Going with VCTS at most of the terminals for a few hours. Going with a dry forecast at the terminals Thursday afternoon and evening. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions the next 24 hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 68 94 71 96 / 10 0 0 10 San Angelo 70 97 71 99 / 10 0 0 20 Junction 70 94 70 95 / 10 10 0 20 Brownwood 68 93 68 95 / 10 0 0 10 Sweetwater 69 95 73 97 / 10 0 0 20 Ozona 70 95 70 95 / 10 10 0 20 Brady 69 93 69 95 / 10 0 0 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...61 LONG TERM....50 AVIATION...21