225
FXUS64 KSJT 181129
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
629 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Early this morning, quiet weather across our area, but that will
probably change by sunrise. As of 230 AM, one boundary was
stalled near the I-10 corridor, with another moving south through
the area, with showers developing east of San Angelo. Most of the
Hi-Res models continue this activity with scattered thunderstorms
developing in the next few hours and lasting through the early
afternoon. Most of the this activity will be located along and
south of an Mertzon to San Angelo to San Sable line. Again, the
severe weather threat is very low, but the storms will produce
dangerous lightning, gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. Going
with a dry forecast from late this afternoon through tonight as
conditions will unfavorable for convective development. A little
cooler today, with highs in the 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

The long term continues to look cooler as well as fairly active as
far as showers and thunderstorms are concerned, especially from
Sunday into the middle of next week.

On Friday, the boundaries affecting the area today should be south
of the area, with little activity expected, and highs in the mid
to upper 90s. Saturday will continue to be hot, with highs in the
mid to upper 90s. However, as an upper level low moves
south/southeast into the central plains, trailing shortwave energy
in the southern plains may help to spawn some isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms in our western counties.

On Sunday, the troughing over the central plains and Great Lakes
area is still expected to expand south/southwest into the southern
plains. At the same time, a cold front should drift south into
west central Texas. The troughing will linger over area area
through most of next week. The combination of the front, the upper
troughing, and plentiful moisture (precipitable water values in
the 1.5 to 2 inch range) will result in a good chance for
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, especially during
the afternoon and evening hours Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday.
Although severe weather can`t be ruled out, the main concerns
with this activity will be locally heavy rainfall, and dangerous
lightning. In addition to the rain chances, cooler temperatures
can also be expected due to the upper level trough, additional
cloud cover, and potentially rain-cooled air. Rain chances should
gradually diminish during the second half of the week as the
trough weakens and pushes slowly eastward.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Most of the Hi-Res models are indicating scattered thunderstorms
developing along and behind the a cold front during the morning
hours. Going with VCTS at most of the terminals for a few hours.
Going with a dry forecast at the terminals this afternoon and
evening. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     94  70  94  71 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  96  71  97  71 /  30   0   0   0
Junction    94  71  94  70 /  50  10  10   0
Brownwood   94  69  93  68 /  10   0   0   0
Sweetwater  95  70  95  73 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       91  71  95  70 /  40  10  10   0
Brady       93  70  93  69 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...21