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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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995 FXUS64 KSJT 181923 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 223 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Weak cold front and shortwave responsible for the showers and storms this morning has pushed south and other than Crockett County, has exited West Central Texas early this afternoon. Expect the activity south of Ozona to continue south and out of the area as well by mid/late afternoon. Visible satellite is showing some more cu and some additional convection developing across the Metroplex where dewpoints remain near 70, but dewpoints have dropped into the 50s across the Big Country. High res CAMs continue to be dry across the area for tonight and Friday. Front isn`t going to make it much farther south before stalling, so at least some isolated convection is possible across the Edwards Plateau near Del Rio on Friday afternoon, but given the northerly steering flow, this should all stay south of the area. Wet soil in some locations may help keep temperatures down a few degrees on Friday afternoon, but most areas are still going to see a decent climb. May not hit the 100 degree mark across the western Concho Valley and Big Country where rain was sparse, but its going to make a run. Other areas will be closer to the low to mid 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Thursday) Issued at 213 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 A broad trough will be across the Plains and the eastern U.S. on Sunday. At the same time, a ridge will sit across the southwestern U.S. This will leave us largely pinned between the two if not on the western edge of the trough. A cold frontal boundary will linger across west Central Texas during this same time period. As a result, this should serve as a focal point for rainfall on Sunday and Monday. The trough aloft should aid in the develop and help maintain the thunderstorms. As ample moisture will remain across the region, we will need to watch out for the possibility of excessive rainfall to occur. The Weather Prediction Center has outlooked our area for excessive rainfall (Marginal Risk) on Sunday and Monday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Area of showers and storms will continue to push south this afternoon. Will clear the last terminal (KSOA) early this afternoon and then leave VFR conditions in its wake. WInds will remain light and generally out of the northeast to east. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 70 93 71 95 / 0 0 0 20 San Angelo 70 97 71 99 / 0 10 0 30 Junction 71 94 70 96 / 0 10 0 20 Brownwood 69 92 68 95 / 0 0 0 10 Sweetwater 71 95 73 96 / 0 10 0 30 Ozona 70 95 71 95 / 0 10 0 20 Brady 70 92 70 95 / 0 0 0 20 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....41 AVIATION...07